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To: Right Wing Professor; rellimpank
Please feel free to list the complex systems for which you've built computer models, and asterisk the ones that included all important parameters in the first version.

Strawman. The incomplete model was used as a catalyst for the declaration of the "fact" of global warming. The leap from hypothesis to "law" is the issue.

Trumepting his results based on clearly inadequate modeling (ignoring the accuracy of the model, for argument's sake) is the cardinal sin being indicated.

25 posted on 03/21/2006 10:35:21 AM PST by MortMan (Trains stop at train stations. On my desk is a workstation...)
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To: MortMan
Strawman. The incomplete model was used as a catalyst for the declaration of the "fact" of global warming. The leap from hypothesis to "law" is the issue.

All models are by their nature incomplete. They usually start out simple and become more sophisticated. It is prudent to defer policy decisions until one has some confidence in the models; nonetheless, right now, the modelling and the data are good enough to make a reasonably confident prediction about the magnitude of anthropogenic climate forcing in the next 50 years. We then need to look cool-headedly at the outcome, and decide if it's one we can live with, and, if it isn't, what we can do to ameliorate things. But arguing that because the models fifteen years ago were much worse, that they can't be trusted now, is foolish.

28 posted on 03/21/2006 10:45:58 AM PST by Right Wing Professor
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