As Cold Heat pointed out a day or two ago, Alawi doesn't really have a sense of what's going on in Iraq, because he lived in exile for the last 15 years or so. In addition, I am highly suspicious of his ties with the Iranians. It is possible he is being paid to say this stuff, either by the Iranians or someone else (like George Soros).
Funny how he popped up with the civil war comment right after the New York Times gave everyone their cues, isn't it?