Replies

The chemical-AIDS hypothesis proposes that the AIDS

epidemics of the US and Europe are caused by recreational

drugs, alias lifestyle, and anti-HIV drugs (Duesberg

J. Biosci. | Vol. 28 | No. 4 | June 2003

Peter Duesberg, Claus Koehnlein and David Rasnick

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Table 4. The HIV-AIDS hypothesis*: 17 predictions versus the facts.

No. Prediction Fact

1. Since HIV is “the sole cause of AIDS”, it must be abundant

in AIDS patients based on “exactly the same criteria as for

other viral diseases.”

But, only antibodies against HIV are found in most

patients (1–7)**. Therefore, “HIV infection is identified in

blood by detecting antibodies, gene sequences, or viral

isolation.” But, HIV can only be “isolated” from rare, latently

infected lymphocytes that have been cultured for

weeks in vitro – away from the antibodies of the human

host (8). Thus HIV behaves like a latent passenger virus.

2. Since HIV is “the sole cause of AIDS”, there is no AIDS in

HIV-free people.

But, the AIDS literature has described at least 4621 HIVfree

AIDS cases according to one survey – irrespective of,

or in agreement with allowances made by the CDC for

HIV-free AIDS cases (55).

3. The retrovirus HIV causes immunodeficiency by killing

T-cells (1–3).

But, retroviruses do not kill cells because they depend on

viable cells for the replication of their RNA from viral

DNA integrated into cellular DNA (4, 25). Thus, T-cells

infected in vitro thrive, and those patented to mass-produce

HIV for the detection of HIV antibodies and diag nosis

of AIDS are immortal (9–15)!

4. Following “exactly the same criteria as for other viral diseases”,

HIV causes AIDS by killing more T-cells than the body

can replace. Thus T-cells or “CD4 lymphocytes . . . become

depleted in people with AIDS”.

But, even in patients dying from AIDS less than 1 in 500

of the T-cells “that become depleted” are ever infected by

HIV (16–20, 54). This rate of infection is the hallmark of

a latent passenger virus (21).

5. With an RNA of 9 kilobases, just like polio virus, HIV

should be able to cause one specific disease, or no disease if

it is a passenger (22).

But, HIV is said to be “the sole cause of AIDS”, or of 26

different immunodeficiency and non-immunodeficiency

diseases, all of which also occur without HIV (table 2).

Thus there is not one HIV-specific disease, which is the

definition of a passenger virus!

6. All viruses are most pathogenic prior to anti-viral immunity.

Therefore, preemptive immunization with Jennerian vaccines is

used to protect against all viral diseases since 1798.

But, AIDS is observed – by definition – only after anti-

HIV immunity is established, a positive HIV/AIDS test

(23). Thus HIV cannot cause AIDS by “the same criteria”

as conventional viruses.

7. HIV needs “5–10 years” from establishing antiviral immunity

to cause AIDS.

But, HIV replicates in 1 day, generating over 100 new HIVs

per cell (24, 25). Accordingly, HIV is immunogenic, i.e. biochemically

most active, within weeks after infection (26, 27).

Thus, based on conventional criteria “for other viral disea ses”,

HIV should also cause AIDS within weeks – if it could.

8. “Most people with HIV infection show signs of AIDS within

5–10 years” – the justification for prophylaxis of AIDS with

the DNA chain terminator AZT (§ 4).

But, of “34×3 million . . . with HIV worldwide” only 1×4%

[= 471,457 (obtained by substracting the WHO’s cumulative

total of 1999 from that of 2000)] developed AIDS in 2000,

and similarly low percentages prevailed in all previous years

(28). Likewise, in 1985, only 1×2% of the 1 million US citizens

with HIV developed AIDS (29, 30). Since an annual incidence

of 1×2–1×4% of all 26 AIDS defining diseases combined is no

more than the normal mortality in the US and Europe (life ex pectancy

of 75 years), HIV must be a passenger virus.

9. A vaccine against HIV should (“is hoped” to) prevent

AIDS – the reason why AIDS researchers try to develop an

AIDS vaccine since 1984 (31).

But, despite enormous efforts there is no such vaccine to

this day (31). Moreover, since AIDS occurs by definition

only in the presence of natural antibodies against HIV

(§ 3), and since natural antibodies are so effective that no

HIV is detectable in AIDS patients (see No. 1), even the

hopes for a vaccine are irrational.

10. HIV, like other viruses, survives by transmission from host

to host, which is said to be mediated “through sexual contact”.

But, only 1 in 1000 unprotected sexual contacts transmits

HIV (32–34), and only 1 of 275 US citizens is HIV-infected

(29, 30), (figure 1b). Therefore, an average un-infected

US citizen needs 275,000 random “sexual contacts” to get

infected and spread HIV – an unlikely basis for an epidemic!

(Table 4. Cond.)

J. Biosci. | Vol. 28 | No. 4 | June 2003

The chemical bases of the various AIDS epidemics

391

Table 4.

No. Prediction Fact

11. “AIDS spreads by infection” of HIV. But, contrary to the spread of AIDS, there is no “spread”

of HIV in the US. In the US HIV infections have remained

constant at 1 million from 1985 (29) until now (30), (see

also The Durban Declaration and figure 1b). By contrast,

AIDS has increased from 1981 until 1992 and has declined

ever since (figure 1a).

12. Many of the 3 million people who annually receive blood transfusions

in the US for life-threatening diseases (51), should have

developed AIDS from HIV-infected blood donors prior to the

elimination of HIV from the blood supply in 1985.

But there was no increase in AIDS-defining diseases in

HIV-positive transfusion recipients in the AIDS era (52),

and no AIDS-defining Kaposi’s sarcoma has ever been

observed in millions of transfusion recipients (53).

13. Doctors are at high risk to contract AIDS from patients, HIV

researchers from virus preparations, wives of HIV-positive

hemophiliacs from husbands, and prostitutes from clients –

particularly since there is no HIV vaccine.

But, in the peer-reviewed literature there is not one doctor or

nurse who has ever contracted AIDS (not just HIV) from the

over 816,000 AIDS patients recorded in the US in 22 years

(30). Not one of over ten thousand HIV researchers has contracted

AIDS. Wives of hemophiliacs do not get AIDS (35).

And there is no AIDS-epidemic in prostitutes (36–38). Thus

AIDS is not contagious (39, 40).

14. Viral AIDS – like all viral/microbial epidemics in the past

(41–43) – should spread randomly in a population.

But, in the US and Europe AIDS is restricted since 1981

to two main risk groups, intravenous drug users and male

homosexual drug users (§ 1 and 4).

15. A viral AIDS epidemic should form a classical, bell-shaped

chronological curve (41–43), rising exponentially via virus

spread and declining exponentially via natural immunity,

within months (see figure 3a).

But, AIDS has been increasing slowly since 1981 for 12

years and is now declining since 1993 (figure 1a), just like

a lifestyle epidemic, as for example lung cancer from

smoking (figure 3b).

16. AIDS should be a pediatric epidemic now, because HIV is

transmitted “from mother to infant” at rates of 25–50% (44–

49), and because “34×3 million people worldwide” were already

infected in 2000. To reduce the high maternal transmission

rate HIV-antibody-positive pregnant mothers are

treated with AZT for up to 6 months prior to birth (§ 4).

But, less than 1% of AIDS in the US and Europe is pediatric

(30, 50). Thus HIV must be a passenger virus in newborns.

17. “HIV recognizes no social, political or geographic borders”

– just like all other viruses.

But, the presumably HIV-caused AIDS epidemics of

Africa and of the US and Europe differ both clinically and

epidemiologically (§ 1, table 2). The US/European epidemic

is highly nonrandom, 80% male and restricted to

abnormal risk groups, whereas the African epidemic is

random.