Buffett's Billion-Dollar Boo-Boo

Human Events Online ^ | 03/14/2006 | Jerry Bower

[LM_Guy]

In his annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett acknowledged that his bet against U.S. currency had collectively cost them almost $1 billion. Buffet wrote, "My views on America’s long-term problem in respect to trade imbalances, which I have laid out in previous reports, remain unchanged. My conviction, however, cost Berkshire $955 million pre-tax in 2005. ..."

In recent years, Buffett has increasingly used his platform as an extraordinarily skillful mutual fund manger to criticize the economic performance of the country under President Bush. In last year's letter he announced that he had been significantly increasing his position against the dollar, citing a growing trade deficit as the reason. Buffett's statement that America was moving from being an ownership society to a "sharecropper’s society" and other criticisms received quite a bit of media attention.

As the chart shows, rising trade deficits cannot be presumed to cause a falling dollar. The data show the dollar strengthening against the euro at a time when trade deficits are rising. This also happened during the Reagan Administration. It is consistent with supply side economics, which sees the value of the dollar determined by the tightness or looseness of our central bank. A free flow of goods, services and capital across borders does not seem to have had any negative impact on the value of the dollar.

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/images/2006-03-14_Bowyer_Chart_lg.jpg

[Pessimist]

I'm not pushing his tax hike scheme.

And you're free to disagree with his notion that trade deficits will result in lower dollar values. But honestly, I wouldn't call it goofy. Its pretty much the conventional wisdom among economists. Maybe he's wrong... maybe they're all wrong (it certainly wouldn't be the first time), but it really not insane, and I really don't think it was political on his part either.

You don't get that rich betting on your emotions.

[expat_panama]

I'm not pushing his tax hike scheme

Take the tax hikes our of Buffet and there's hardly anything left.  From the article:    "Buffett has increasingly used his platform as an extraordinarily skillful mutual fund manger to criticize the economic performance of the country under President Bush."   Elsewhere:

Warren Buffett slams dividend tax cut plan

BBC NEWS | Americas | Tycoon aids Kerry White House bid
Mr Buffett, worth some $40bn, said he disagreed profoundly with Mr Bush's tax...

Forbes.com: Forbes World's Richest People 2005
Outspoken opponent of Bush tax cuts,

Capitalism & Conscience
"I am not for the Bush (tax) plan," Buffett told the crowd in Omaha. "It screams
of injustice." Buffett objected to the inherent unfairness of President ...

USATODAY.com - Buffett joins Kerry's economic advisory team
Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who has publicly criticized President
Bush's tax cuts as favoring the wealthy, has agreed to serve as an economic ...

Taipei Times - archives
Bush's tax cuts makes rich Americans richer ... Gates led the list with US$51
billion, ahead of investor Warren Buffet with US$40 billion. ...

--and on and on.