Taiwan Storm Set To Get Louder (China)

BBC ^ | 3-14-2006 | Chris Hogg

[blam]

Taiwan storm set to get louder

By Chris Hogg
BBC News, Hong Kong

Tensions between the two sides are running high

It is 12 months since China passed a law authorising the use of force against Taiwan if the self-governing island moved towards formal independence.

On the face of it, it looks like nothing much has changed since then.

Both sides are still flinging insults at each other. China is still refusing to talk to Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian. The "status quo", as people call it, remains in place.

But conversations with the leading players and analysts who monitor their every move suggest an alternative conclusion - the situation has changed, and continues to evolve.

"Beijing now is taking a different approach to dealing with the Taiwan issue" argued Lo Chih-cheng from Taiwan's Institute for National Policy Research.

Taiwan flashpoint

"They want to be the 'good cop'," he said. "They're asking Washington to be the 'bad cop'. They offer carrots to people here while pressuring the Americans to take a more hard-line approach to prevent any move towards independence."

One carrot was Beijing's invitation to leaders from Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) opposition to meet them in the Great Hall of the People, a few weeks after the anti-secession law was passed.

Senior KMT lawmaker Su Chi believes the contacts between his party and the mainland leaders have helped ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait since the anti-secession law was passed.

"We gave them the assurance that not everyone in Taiwan is pushing for independence so there's no need to panic," he said, "no need to attack or invade Taiwan. We have saved Taiwan's skin."

Unsurprisingly, the chairman of the government body tasked with handling cross-strait issues, the Mainland Affairs Council, sees it quite differently.

Joseph Wu said relations between the two sides have worsened in the last 12 months.

Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal and that's not fair to Taiwan

He sees the meeting between opposition leaders and the Chinese leadership as an attempt to meddle in Taiwan's internal affairs.

And he cited China's continuing military build-up and continuing efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically as evidence of a tougher, not a softer, line from Beijing.

He used the strongest language to protest against the way the international community - almost all of whose members grant diplomatic recognition to China rather than Taiwan - treats the island's democratically elected leader.

"Our president is being treated probably worse than a terrorist or a criminal, and that's not fair to Taiwan. It adds to Taiwan's frustration," he said. "We think this is the problem."

Domestic woes

Beijing has been alarmed by Mr Chen's recent scrapping of a council on reunification with the mainland, the National Unification Council.

Mr Wu denied that the president was trying to draw attention away from his problems at home.

Mr Chen's poll ratings have plummeted and his Democratic Progressive Party has been damaged by corruption scandals and beaten badly in local elections.

Critics said his scrapping of the Council was part of an attempt to draw attention back to the threat posed by China, and edge Taiwan closer towards formal independence.

"(He's) trying to consolidate the pro-independent voters' support, and distract Taiwanese voters' attention from his party's corruption and poor performance in developing the economy," said Kaocheng Wang, director of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University.

Opposition supporters have denounced Mr Chen's tactics

KMT legislator Su Chi said the president's next tactic would be to try to make constitutional reform an issue in the months to come.

President Chen has already made clear his view that "re-engineering" of the document was needed.

The opposition fears this means rewriting the whole document.

The Mainland Affairs Council's Joseph Wu denied that. He pointed out that the current document was drawn up in China in 1947, and that certain sections were "simply out of date".

Mr Chen has pledged not to touch on the issues of sovereignty. But he has refused to be drawn on what changes he plans to propose.

Proposing changing the island's official name or flag, for example, would provoke a furious response from Beijing.

Even limited constitutional changes passed last year led to protests from China's leaders.

So why bother to risk antagonising them again?

Some analysts point out that if it provokes sabre-rattling by the Chinese, that could prove to be an electoral asset for the president's party - as it has done in the past.

Mr Chen personally does not have any more elections to fight - he has to stand down after finishing his two terms as president in 2008 - but of course he wants to do his best to ensure his party remains in power.

And like many politicians coming to the end of their term in office, he no doubt has an eye to his legacy, and wants his place in the history books.

[HaveGunWillTravel]

Click here

[KungFuBrad]

No proxy. Occasionally I have to use a proxy to get to some web sites but for the most part I get anywhere I want.

When there is some big news about China that is bad I will have a day or two of problems getting to Fox News or Drudge. But really no big probs. Funny, they seem to be more interested in blocking GEOsites. Never can get to any of those.

I really am on the fence of this issue. After living in China I have found, for the most part, I don't see the government. One of the main things that keeps China from uniting against the government is the fact that none of them speak the same language. Yes many will say that Mandarin is the language. Well I speak some Mandarin and most of the people I talk to don't. Every city, every village, every province has their own language. They call it a "dialect" but it is much more then that. Its not just pronouncing words differently, ITS A DIFFRENT LANGAUGAGE. Most Chinese can not talk to each other.

I am sure the government like this. If you cant speak to your neighbor then you cant get together on something you both don't like.

You also have to realize that there are 3 China's. You have the Coastal China which is a lot more western and free. This is the part of China that is running the economy. Then you have the central/farmer China. They are not benefiting to much from the economic rise of China. There is a lot of dissatisfaction with it. Most of your anti-government protest are coming from here. Unfortunately though they are saying the government is not Socialist enough.

Then you have Western China which has a lot of Muslim citizens. To my surprise, Muslims seem to comprise a large portion of China. I can not walk 2 blocks without seeing Muslim restaurant or mosques. Seems the Muslims on the coastal areas are "good China Muslims" they have been walked on by the government for so long they are afraid to do anything.

The Western Muslims however are still VERY *.stan Muslims. The government has to continually watch them.

Now the argument that Taiwan speaks Chinese so they should be part of China is just stupid. I wont re-argue the "I speak English I should be a citizen of the UK"

The real (paraphrased history) is this.

Sometimes Taiwan was part of China, Sometimes it was its own country and sometimes it belonged to Japan.

China and Japan fought a war at the first part of the 20th centrury. Not sure the exact dates but I think somewhere around 1913 China signed Taiwan over to Japan. After WW2 Japan freed Taiwan. They did not give it back to China but gave it back to itself. So when the KMT "INVADED" Taiwan they did not consider themselves part of China. At the time Neither did Tibet or Mongolia.

My Chinese friends will say "well that government wasn't a good government so we don't recognize that treaty with Japan" They don't say it didn't happen they just say it should be erased. By that argument, any country that used to own another country could reclaim that country on the basis that they now think that government was bad. It was a legal treaty, a treaty recognized by the world.

So China really has no legitimate claim on Taiwan. Yes they have the same Character words. But Japan uses those same characters. No one claims that Japan belongs to China. China has a 5000 year history, or so they claim. During this history sometimes China has been big, sometimes small. What is really China. They don't speak Chinese in Tibet, They don't speak Chinese in Mongolia. Why then does China claim these. Because they had a big enough army and no one tried to stop them. Its hypocritical to use the "they speak the same language" argument for Taiwan and then not argue that Tibet and Mongolia should be free because they don't speak the same language.

[KungFuBrad]

Yes I do, thats why I say I am mostly joking. You should really see the eyes of my Chinese friends when I tell them this. Or even funnier when my student debate this in class

[RightWhale]

None of that matters. Which China?

[starbase]

Well, as maui_hawaii posted to me above, this debate is all semantics. In my opinion, you must disprove an obvious political, historical, and governmental link, without using mincing little exceptions, if you want to claim to be different and unrelated.

An example of a mincing argument is to say that the government in Taiwan was once the government of China, but no it wasn't, because a different party in Taiwan holds the presidency now (forget the fact that the original party, the KMT, will almost certainly win the next election, which then reverses the argument again), while all the while the government that came from China did become a democracy in Taiwan, so it still was the government that was once in China!!

Enough! I wanted to introduce a different view of Taiwan as being the unpleasant and calloused, self serving dump that many other people also find it to be (not to mention very dirty in pollution and waste management), because I didn't want my country extending very expensive favors to those who don't deserve them.

In my opinion the ownership of Taiwan by China is crystal clear. However, if anyone wants to draw endless legalistic distinctions then the debate is certainly open to that. My goal was to question if Taiwan is worth our effort based on what I know about the place, and beyond that I don't really care much about the debate. Except to say that no matter what anyone says anywhere at anytime, the Mainland Chinese will NEVER let this go, because they are bent when it comes to Chinese territory. And given that Taiwan is a resource poor, earthquake and typhoon prone dump, I add it to my "Not Worth America's Effort" column.

[RightWhale]

Ignoring the aesthetics, what is the actual status of Taiwan right now?

[pganini]

Jeff,

I agree with you on many fronts but you have to remember this about the Taiwan Independence movement -- they are going for a separate ethnicity from China, not just another country. That's probably pissing off mainlanders more than anything else.

And I don't agree that even if China is democratic then the tension will drop. In fact, Chen Shui Bian will be out there saying that Taiwan is a separate country from China even if China is democratic because it is a separate "people" ethnically.

Even if the CCP was removed, and there aren't any more censors, no one in China will buy that hogwash that Taiwan wasn't a province of China prior to the Japanese aggression in the 1800's. Fact is, Taiwan was settled in the late Ming Dynasty when the manchurians gained control of China by a ex-Ming general. He vowed to return to the mainland (similar to KMT) to regain control. So in that sense, Taiwan was part of China for more than 300 years.

I dunno about you, a democratic China with its national fervor may not be a good thing. It's better than CCP, but CCP doesn't have mandate of the people - a democracy would. And if they vote on Taiwan independence issue, they'll vote to use force to prevent independence.

BTW, i doubt war will ever break out. If Taiwan declares independence, CHina will just seize Taiwanese factories and don' trade with them and don't trade with countries that recognize Taiwan. That will alone bring them back to the table as Taiwanese economy is 80% dependent on the mainland now.

[pganini]

Not independent country but still independent :)

[pganini]

"I really am on the fence of this issue. After living inChina I have found, for the most part, I don't see the government. One of the main things that keeps China from uniting against the government is the fact that none of them speak the same language. Yes many will say that Mandarin is the language. Well I speak some Mandarin and most of the people I talk to don't. Every city, every village, every province has their own language. They call it a "dialect" but it is much more then that. Its not just pronouncing words differently, ITS A DIFFRENT LANGAUGAGE. Most Chinese can not talk to each other."


Maybe it's because you don't speak putonghua (i am not sure where they get the "mandarin" from, presumably from manchurian days, but the language itself isn't manchurian) well enough. People there speak their own dialects but can always speak putonghua. The only exception being Hong Kong where it's just Cantonese.

And no, it's not a different language, even with Cantonese i can still make out words, can't speak it worth a damn, but i can figure out some words. They share the same root.

What people don't realize is that in Asia in general, it's ethnicity AND culture that makes up a "country". Not religion, but culture. So when the manchurians invaded "Ming" (or the Han Chinese), and then proceed to take over Tibet + Xinjiang in the 16-17th centuries and then they convert into the culture, it essentially made those two areas part of China in the eyes of mainlanders. China grew bigger or shrinks throughout its 5000 years of history and there is really no one definition of how big China is. The only thing you can do is look at what happened in the last 300-400 years.

BTW, if democracy was the only gauging factor in determining who can be independent, then the NOrth should not have invaded the South during the US civil war -- after all, the peopl ein the South VOTED to secede. In the end, declaration of independence is always, always followed by war. Whether it's the US independence, the Southern independence (they lost), or whatever.

[starbase]

Ignoring the aesthetics, what is the actual status of Taiwan right now?

Dude, you go in for these short one liners. That's your third one! Please work with me to do some heavy lifting. Expound, man, expound!!

The "status" of Taiwan? You must know it's a non-country, not really defined as anything, but "part" of a nebulous "single China" which exists somewhere.

Their "status" is also being 100% dependent on a foreign power, or their "status" would be "a province of China" yesterday. It's the interests of that foreign power that I'm excavating here on this thread.

[RightWhale]

Taiwan is a territory of the US. If China wants it they should make an offer.

[starbase]

Taiwan is a territory of the US. If China wants it they should make an offer.

I don't know about that terminology! I suspect both sides would get on your case for that one. I do think we should pawn off our involvement in Taiwan in exchange for some goody for ourselves, though, IMHO.

[tallhappy]

The Bush administration is publicly siding with the communists.

Adam Ereli needs to be fired.

[tallhappy]

Do you see how this forum is inunndated now with people who propagandize Beijing talking points.

This forum is no bettter than any MSM forum now.

[tallhappy]

Nice to see the Nationalist Chinese Star instead of the Communists'...

Yes, but understand that these "Nationals", KMT officials, have actually hidden their flag if a delegation from China comes or if there are Chinese atheletes competing in an event in Taiwan.

The KMT hide their own flag so as to not make Chinese communists see it when they are in Taiwan.

These guys saying they have saved Taiwan are full of it. They are sad and pathetic and Chiang Kai-shek would have had them killed for what they have done and are doing.

The back story is we are supporting via State this sort of soft communist take over.

I am very disanpointed at the Bush administration for this and feel he is jeopordizing himself in not sticking to his own principles and letting the amoral left leaning State apparcnatiks set policy here.

[Avenger]

"I agree with you on many fronts but you have to remember this about the Taiwan Independence movement -- they are going for a separate ethnicity from China, not just another country."

Not in my experience. I have met a number of people in Taiwan who support independence to one degree or another and not one of them was anti-Chinese culture: they write Chinese (the traditional characters - not the degraded characters that Mao and his thugs created); they speak Chinese; they celebrate Chinese New Year, Dragon Boat festival, Moon Festival, observe Ghost Month, etc.; eat Chinese food; have family altars and offer incense and bai bai daily; some of them are also highly recognized in the areas martial arts, Chinese medicine, calligraphy, and so on. The only thing that the vast majority of Taiwanese resent about Chinese culture is that it is being held over their heads like a sword by the PRC and Chinese chauvinists who cynically use it to impose themselves and justify their threats. Comments like "they (i.e. Taiwanese who support independence) are going for a separate ethnicity from China" are simply propaganda designed to stir up the emotions of Chinese chauvinists. Yes, there may be a few radicals (as there are anywhere) but they certainly don't represent the vast majority of people who favor independence. And in any case, hypothetically even if Taiwanese were going for a "separate ethnicity from China" as you claim, why would that matter? Is it a crime for a people to choose how their culture and ethnic identification will evolve? Or do you think governments should impose themselves upon the people in this regard? Didn't you claim at some point that you were a libertarian?

"Even if the CCP was removed, and there aren't any more censors, no one in China will buy that hogwash that Taiwan wasn't a province of China prior to the Japanese aggression in the 1800's."

Well, I believe that Taiwan became a province in 1887. Prior to that it was considered a county of the Fujian province. Real efforts on the part of the Ching dynasty to develop Taiwan only began in the early 1880's when they become worried about Japan's maneuvers in the area - including an Japanese military expedition into Taiwan to punish aborigines who had attacked a Japanese vessel. Prior to the 1880's the people on Taiwan were for the most part neglected, and at times even suppressed, by the Ching dynasty.

"Fact is, Taiwan was settled in the late Ming Dynasty when the manchurians gained control of China by a ex-Ming general."

He was also half-Japanese.

[Jeff Head]

Well said.

[Free Baptist]

Beijing: "China is one country and Taiwan is part of it."
KMT: "China is one country and the Mainland is part of it."
Chen Shui-bian: "China is one country, but let's be honest -- Taiwan has been ruling itself for 57 years - MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY - and have proven that we do not adhere to the same political principles, and we are Chinese making the decisions, not westerners, so don't assume or consume us in your Stalinist/Marxist/Maoist stupidity."

I like Mr. Chen.

[Avenger]

"Taiwan is independent of the mainland and has been for several decades."

Practically speaking Taiwan has been independent of mainland China for 110 years - since 1895 when China ceded Taiwan to Japan in a peace treaty signed due to the defeat China suffered in a conflict with Japan over Korea. There was the short period after WWII from 1945-1949, but China was mired in a civil war at that time, and Taiwan received little in the form of organized and effective governance during this period, but instead mostly suffered abuse at the hands of associates of Chiang Zhe Shi who were largely interested in lining their pockets with green.

[Jeff Head]

You make good points, but I was really meaning (though it was not worded clearly) independent and free of the mainland. Clearly, during the Japanese years they were not "independent".