Michael Barone: The Lessons of 1994

Creator's Syndicate ^ | March 13, 2006 | Michael Barone

[aliquando]

I wish I could vote "Chicago style", but then I have morals. My Father died in 2001, it took them three election cycles for them to finally get him off the rolls!

[Reagan Man]

Caught Michael Barrone with Brit Hume today. This article offers more optimism for the GOP then Barrone's appearence on Fox. Barrone said that 32 seats, 21 GOP and 11 Dems, were up for grabs.

Btw, Bob Novak nailed the 1994 House finals.

[mware]

I heard pretty much the same on Brits show this afternoon.

Barone is a genius.

During CPAC 2005, I was waiting in line for him to autograph his latest book. I was about 8th in line. He asked every person in front of me, what state and county they were from. He then regaled them with the voting result from that county.

I was a bit embarrassed but told him anyway.He laughed and said, "You folks have a lot of work to do."

This year while walking through the exhibition hall,I ran into him again and asked if I could have my photo taken with him,he laughed and said sure but asked, "Have you ever been indicted, I don't want to ruin my reputation."

[Siena Dreaming]

In this cycle, many reporters have been contemplating the possibility that Democrats will take the House back this November. That's partly because most reporters are Democrats and find that result congenial.

The Democrat reporters are unloading everything they have against Bush.

It's not going to work.

[EternalVigilance]

Barone is a genius.

I agree. He's absolutely brilliant.

[kcar]

Future historians may someday grudgingly recall that at this point in the election cycle of '06 Osama Bin Laden had not yet been killed nor had we yet discovered large stockpiles of WMD in the Iraqi desert.

[EternalVigilance]

Caught Michael Barrone with Brit Hume today.

Me too. Bottom line of his comments was that he didn't believe that it was possible for the Dems to pick up more than 10 seats max.

Though he did indicate that it's still too early to say, really.

[EternalVigilance]

Good point. Pendulums do swing back the other way...

[My2Cents]

It's not going to work.

Just like it didn't work in 2004. I hope they stick to their strategy.

[veronica]

You can take what Barone says to the bank.

[EternalVigilance]

You betcha.

[Semi Civil Servant]

This is good news. Barone is the very best at this kind of analysis.

[RedMonqey]

One important lesson iwas institional corruption, i.e. the House bank scandal.


While the Abramoff stink inflicted alot of Reps, it wasn't as widespread and institionalized as as the House bank scandal,

[LibLieSlayer]

"That's what Democrats hope is happening this year. Pollster Stanley Greenberg says his latest Democracy Corps poll shows Republican support falling sharply in the Deep South, in rural areas and among downscale men -- groups among which Republicans have had big leads. Such a change wouldn't affect many House races, because these groups are concentrated in districts that are very heavily Republican. But it could put another dozen or so Republican seats in play, over and above the dozen or so where Democrats are making strong challenges (Republicans are making strong challenges in about half a dozen Democratic seats)."

I live as DEEP in the SOUTH as a man can get. I can tell you that the vast majority of plumbers, AC men, Doctors, Lawyers, Indian Chiefs, Bass fishermen, Deer hunters, farmers, and truckers that I know, ALL hate dims. I don't mean dislike; I mean virulently hate them. Greenberg is selling soap.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

Barrone said (on Brits show tonight) dims chances are almost nil to win enough seats to take the house. His best case scenario for dims leaves them down 5 seats... and that was a stretch he said.

LLS

[LibertarianInExile]

"Bottom line of his comments was that he didn't believe that it was possible for the Dems to pick up more than 10 seats max. Though he did indicate that it's still too early to say, really."

If he hadn't added the latter comment, I wouldn't consider him worth a read. Eight months away from an election is an eternity. Anyone here puffing about how they know 2006'll turn out now is spouting off.

[Reagan Man]

Both our posts are correct. The article is a bit more optimistic in its context then Barrone's Special Report appearence. It was interesting to hear Barrone quote well respected political pollster Charlie Cook's analysis, that 21 GOP House seats and 11 Democrat House seats were up for grabs. He didn't mention that in the article. While Barrone didn't believe the Dems could win more then 10 of the 15 seats needed to retake control of Congress, its still early. Unless things change, at the very least the GOP will lose seats in the House this November. The polling trends are looking awful for the GOP.

[Huck]

Unless things change, at the very least the GOP will lose seats in the House this November. The polling trends are looking awful for the GOP.

Well, you have to admit they've been on a pretty good run. Hell, even the 27 Yankees lost games.

[kcar]

Rent a brain and haish your complaining. Let 'em think they can come down, spend lots of money, and win votes in the Deep South.