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The nightmare this time A nuclear showdown with Iran .
Boston Globe ^ | March 12, 2006 | Graham Allison

Posted on 03/13/2006 9:22:01 AM PST by robowombat

The nightmare this time A nuclear showdown with Iran could be this generation's Cuban missile crisis. Here are the reasons we must not let it come to that. By Graham Allison | March 12, 2006

ACCORDING TO A RECENT Gallup poll, most Americans now view Iran as our country's greatest national enemy. Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC News survey reports that 42 percent of Americans support a military strike to prevent Iran from developing nuclear technology. Online betting sites make the odds of a US or Israeli airstrike against Iran before March 2007 as 1 in 3.

As Senator John McCain has summed up the hard-line position, ''There is only one thing worse than the US exercising a military option, and that is a nuclear-armed Iran."

On the other hand, some commentators, even in the administration, now suggest that a nuclear-armed Iran is inevitable. ''Look, the Pakistanis and the North Koreans got the bomb," a ''senior official" told The New York Times, ''and they didn't have Iran's money or engineering expertise."

As citizens, we are watching a slow-mo Cuban missile crisis in which events are moving, seemingly inexorably, toward a crossroads at which President Bush will have to decide between McCain's options. Before we get there, however, Americans should vigorously debate the bottom-line question: Can we live with a nuclear Iran?

(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; US: Massachusetts; War on Terror
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Establishmen knees are already knocking in Cambridge.
1 posted on 03/13/2006 9:22:04 AM PST by robowombat
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To: robowombat

"The nightmare this time A nuclear showdown with Iran could be this generation's Cuban missile crisis. Here are the reasons we must not let it come to that. By Graham Allison | March 12, 2006"

Is there any indication that Iran has missiles that could reach here? That was the big thing about the Cuban crisis.. This is bad and disruptive but not the same.

That said, we have a better case for war with Iran than we had for Iraq.


2 posted on 03/13/2006 9:23:48 AM PST by gondramB (Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and unto God that which is God's.)
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To: robowombat

"The nightmare this time A nuclear showdown with Iran could be this generation's Cuban missile crisis. Here are the reasons we must not let it come to that. By Graham Allison | March 12, 2006"

Is there any indication that Iran has missiles that could reach here? That was the big thing about the Cuban crisis.. This is bad and disruptive but not the same.

That said, we have a better case for war with Iran than we had for Iraq.


3 posted on 03/13/2006 9:23:51 AM PST by gondramB (Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and unto God that which is God's.)
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To: robowombat
Can we live with a nuclear Iran?

If we can't, we'd better start mending fences with our Gulf allies pronto.

But if mending fences is anathema to to many folks here, then I recommend finding a way to live with a nuclear-armed Iran.

4 posted on 03/13/2006 9:25:34 AM PST by BeHoldAPaleHorse (Tagline deleted at request of moderator.)
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To: robowombat
The only thing I disagree with is the repeated assertion that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, et al will all go nuclear after Iran does. They've been living with a nuclear Israel for 30+ years and haven't gotten together the means or motivation to go nuclear themselves. The only way they'll be doing so after Iran does is if Iran gives them the technology - I'm looking at you, Syria.
5 posted on 03/13/2006 9:25:57 AM PST by Lejes Rimul (I was right about Iraq all along. Told you so.)
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To: gondramB
Is there any indication that Iran has missiles that could reach here?

Yes. They can put a missile onto a ship and sail it off the American coast. And they're working on an ICBM that can reach the US from Iran.

6 posted on 03/13/2006 9:26:39 AM PST by BeHoldAPaleHorse (Tagline deleted at request of moderator.)
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To: gondramB

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1595198/posts


7 posted on 03/13/2006 9:27:04 AM PST by monkeywrench (Deut. 27:17 Cursed be he that removeth his neighbor's landmark)
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To: robowombat

Well, if Bush attacks Iran, the Boston Globe will be among the first to scream "Quagmire!"

And if Bush does nothing and the nukes begin to fly, the Boston globe will be among the first to scream "Bush's fault!"

After all, taking back congress and the White House for the Democrats is far more important than supporting our country's security and/or survival.


8 posted on 03/13/2006 9:27:05 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: gondramB
we have a better case for war with Iran than we had for Iraq.

We do? I think we had a pretty good case with Iraq. They had WMD, they'd used WMD and they never accounted for what they had. Further, they spent many years locking their targeting radars on our aircraft and refused to comply with the terms of the cease fire. The case was pretty good in Iraq.

9 posted on 03/13/2006 9:27:47 AM PST by rhombus
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To: robowombat
As Senator John McCain has summed up the hard-line position, ''There is only one thing worse than the US exercising a military option, and that is a nuclear-armed Iran."

Yeah, a real rock-ribbed Republican that McCain.

At least he firmly grasps the obvious.

10 posted on 03/13/2006 9:28:47 AM PST by martin_fierro (< |:)~)
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To: Cicero
Fortunately Bush doesn't have to worry about public opinion on this one.

So, as Kos says, "Screw em'".

11 posted on 03/13/2006 9:30:06 AM PST by zarf (It's time for a college football playoff system.)
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse

"Yes. They can put a missile onto a ship and sail it off the American coast. And they're working on an ICBM that can reach the US from Iran."

That is deadly serious but still not the same as being simulateoulsy able to obliterate all major U.S. cities.


12 posted on 03/13/2006 9:30:18 AM PST by gondramB (Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and unto God that which is God's.)
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To: monkeywrench
I had not seen that thread thank you. BTW, the missile range should be worrying Europe more than the U.S. it would be nice if they would take this seriously.
13 posted on 03/13/2006 9:31:33 AM PST by gondramB (Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and unto God that which is God's.)
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To: gondramB
Is there any indication that Iran has missiles that could reach here?

A missle is certainly not necessary .....N.Y. can be leveled by a single privatly owned sailboat, entering the harbor from anywhere with muslim loonies at the helm and a nuke in the cabin.

Some reputable folks believe the TWA jet leaving JFK was downed by a missle launched from a boat with the launch mechisms cast overboard after the successful strike.

14 posted on 03/13/2006 9:33:14 AM PST by pop-gun
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To: pop-gun

"A missle is certainly not necessary .....N.Y. can be leveled by a single privatly owned sailboat, entering the harbor from anywhere with muslim loonies at the helm and a nuke in the cabin."

That's a huge deal but not on the same scale as the Cuban missile crisis.


15 posted on 03/13/2006 9:34:39 AM PST by gondramB (Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and unto God that which is God's.)
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To: gondramB
we have a better case for war with Iran than we had for Iraq

"We´re at war. Iraq is a part of the war on terror. It is not the war on terror;
it is a theater in the war on terror. And it´s essential we win this battle in the war on terror.
By winning this battle, it will make other victories more certain in the war against the terrorists."
President George W Bush

16 posted on 03/13/2006 9:35:09 AM PST by ASA Vet (Those who talk don't know, those who know don't talk.)
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To: ASA Vet

I don't want to emphasize the Iraq part of that comparison - we are there now and we have to get a good outcome.

My point was that ever how strong one thinks the case for war with Iraq was, the case is stronger for Iran.


17 posted on 03/13/2006 9:37:18 AM PST by gondramB (Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and unto God that which is God's.)
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To: robowombat
These 'experts' miss a distinct difference (or several).

1. Soviet missiles could 'destroy' the US; Iranians lack the lift vehicles and the warheads. Back in the 60s, putting Soviet warheads and missiles in Cuba made them no more or less dangerous than placing them in Siberia. The differences in flight time affected our military response and our false sense of security WRT missiles and bombers coming over the pole.

2. Missiles in Iran cannot destroy the US, but warheads in Achmed's Ryder truck can.

3. The Soviets were not intent on delivering warheads unless they had to. Achmed IS intent on getting them here and detonating them.

4. We would have been hard-pressed in the 60s to truly defeat the USSR (and vice versa) in a nuclear exchange, although both countries and much of the world would be wasteland for centuries. We *can* devastate Iran if need be via conventional, electronic, financial and yes nuclear means. **IF** we ever decided to go nuclear, AND wage war with other viable means, in the space of a less than a week, Iran would have no electrical power, no EMF capable electronics, no financial system, no military, no means to communicate within or outside its borders, on and on.

5. A nuclear action by the US WILL NOT happen unless we are attacked and blame can be laid. Period.

5a. 90 minutes after a verified attack, Iran would cease to exist.

5b. CNN international and Reuters would NOT be able to broadcast from the hot zones, but would of course be able to immediately interview 'dignitaries' opposed to and condemning US actions. They have previously drawn up target lists, just like the military does. ;-)
18 posted on 03/13/2006 9:37:31 AM PST by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitor)
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To: robowombat

Within the twisted circular reasoning of a closed society, Iran might decide if Israel didn't exist there would be peace and prosperity in the ME. They are wrong in this assumption. Iran's problem is clinging to short sighted 14th century ideas that prop up corrupt Mullahs.


19 posted on 03/13/2006 9:40:40 AM PST by GOPJ (MSM coverage of Iraq War is like a sports section written by women who hate sports.)
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To: Blueflag

A good summary


20 posted on 03/13/2006 9:47:50 AM PST by gondramB (Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and unto God that which is God's.)
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