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Devastating bird flu pandemic one step away - expert
RIA Novosti ^ | 07/ 03/ 2006

Posted on 03/12/2006 5:22:46 AM PST by Lessismore

MOSCOW, March 7 (RIA Novosti) - The world is one step away from a bird flu pandemic that cannot be averted by quarantine or vaccination, a Russian expert said Tuesday.

"One amino-acid replacement in the genome remains to make the virus transferable from human to human," said Dmitry Lvov, the director of a virology research institute at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.

Lvov said the pandemic virus could strike at any moment, and would most likely come from China, leading to tens of millions of human deaths, or one third of the global population. He added quarantine measures could delay the pandemic for a few days but not prevent it, and that vaccination would not stop people getting sick.

"A good vaccine will only save [people] from death and complications, but not from the illness itself," he said.

Lvov said any pandemic was based on a hybridization of the bird and human viruses.

Pigs are the most vulnerable animals in the face of both human and bird viruses, which makes them "an intermediary link between human and bird flu," he said.

Lvov said the bird flu pandemic was irreversible like any other natural cataclysm, and would not stop until the highly pathogenic strain mutates into a less dangerous one.

"When will it stop? When highly pathogenic strains localized in wild birds are once again transformed into a low-pathogenic one according to the law of nature," Lvov said.

He said all that could be done to deal with the pandemic was large amounts of vaccination, hundreds of thousands of beds in intensive care, and the necessary instruments and medicines.

Lvov also said that the bird flu virus would shortly sweep the south of central Russia, specifically the Astrakhan, Rostov-on-Don, and Volgograd Regions.

The Agriculture Ministry said Monday that bird flu had been registered in eight regions in the south of the country, a major stopover area for migrating birds.

The ministry said over 1.3 million birds had died or been slaughtered in three outbreaks of bird flu since July 2005.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: avianflu; birdflu; h5n1; pandemic
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To: Gritty

I've read about "the government" telling people to stock up for longer terms here on FR but not in the general news.

Why are these reports not more common place in the news?


21 posted on 03/12/2006 7:31:36 AM PST by Cold Heart
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To: Post-Neolithic
If we use the 1918 figures, 975 million people would die. Keeping in mind that in 1918 we did not have millions of people flying every day, nor did we have products shipping across the globe in 24 hours.

We also didn't have modern medicine and antibiotics. Many of the deaths weren't from the flu itself, but from opportunistic secondary infections. If the same 1918 bug spread today, the death rate would be much lower.

22 posted on 03/12/2006 7:34:49 AM PST by NonZeroSum
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To: bkepley
I've been hearing about this for a long time now.

Me too. The situation doesn't seem to be getting any better. When it first appeared in 1997 in Hong Kong, they thought they wiped it out. They were wrong, unfortunately.

How long before we can safely say it was much ado about nothing?

That's a good question. The answer might be, "when we develop a decent vaccine and a way to manufacture it quickly and distribute it widely" - much as we have for other pandemic diseases.

The problem with this disease is, like all influenza viruses, it mutates rapidly so there is no "one size fits all" vaccine we can develop and then forget about like for polio, smallpox or diphtheria. Each new variant must be addressed.

The key, I think, is the development of new 21st century vaccine technologies and their infrastructures. Currently, we are still using early 20th century ones using chicken eggs. Unfortunately, we nearly destroyed the vaccine industry in this country during the Clinton years, so we are starting almost from scratch. Other countries are way ahead of us.

23 posted on 03/12/2006 7:41:01 AM PST by Gritty
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To: Gritty
Me too. The situation doesn't seem to be getting any better. When it first appeared in 1997 in Hong Kong, they thought they wiped it out. They were wrong, unfortunately.

Well..for the birds I guess. How many humans have died? And wasn't the medical community equally certain that the aids virus was going to move into the heterosexual community and kill millions. And wasn't there another certainty that the swine flue was another great pandemic?

24 posted on 03/12/2006 7:48:21 AM PST by bkepley
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To: bkepley
I've been hearing about this for a long time now.

Does that mean you are prepared for it if it comes? Or, are you just pooh-poohing the idea because it is a concept that you cannot grasp?

Isn't it better to be prepared and nothing happens than the converse?

25 posted on 03/12/2006 7:52:24 AM PST by raybbr
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To: NonZeroSum
"We also didn't have modern medicine and antibiotics. Many of the deaths weren't from the flu itself, but from opportunistic secondary infections.If the same 1918 bug spread today, the death rate would be much lower."

I agree with the first part, I just don't think modern medicine is going to be able to overcome modern progress. First, we will not even be able to make a vaccine until the virus mutates.

Which means the first group of people to catch the virus will either die or suffer the symptoms(assuming a vaccine is developed within 17 days), and live. The current Vaccine batch is made for the Vietnam 2004 not the A/Indonesia/2005 strain, which is what is spreading right now.Current statistics suggest that the virus takes 2-8 days to show in the infected person, sometimes up to 17 days.

That means the people infected with the virus will have spread it globally long before it's even noticed. Think airplanes and recirculated air. I have my doubts if it will mutate or not, but I have always believed in "Better safe then sorry".

26 posted on 03/12/2006 7:57:52 AM PST by Post-Neolithic
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To: NonZeroSum
We also didn't have modern medicine and antibiotics. Many of the deaths weren't from the flu itself, but from opportunistic secondary infections. If the same 1918 bug spread today, the death rate would be much lower.

The 360 million dead worst case I mentioned is based on the fact that with today's medical knowledge, there will be a lot few deaths than people think. This is mostly because our modern knowledge of nutrition has shown that people who eat a good diet and get a decent amount of Vitamins C and E plus antioxidants will have a better chance of surviving the effects of the flu.

27 posted on 03/12/2006 8:00:54 AM PST by RayChuang88
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To: raybbr

---Or, are you just pooh-poohing the idea because it is a concept that you cannot grasp?

Yeah, it's sooo complex.


28 posted on 03/12/2006 8:02:07 AM PST by bkepley
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To: Lessismore

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!


29 posted on 03/12/2006 8:04:36 AM PST by SALChamps03
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To: Paloma_55
"The virus attacks the stronger people worse because their bodies fight it harder."

This thread provides some insight on this.

Bird Flu May Over-Stimulate Immune System

30 posted on 03/12/2006 8:06:30 AM PST by blam
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To: bkepley
Yeah, it's sooo complex.

I didn't mean it was complex. Some people can't grasp the idea of millions of people dying at the same time.

31 posted on 03/12/2006 8:07:15 AM PST by raybbr
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To: raybbr

You're so certain this virus will be the great one, I'm sure you must be stockpiled.


32 posted on 03/12/2006 8:08:57 AM PST by bkepley
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To: Paloma_55

We also have a more technologically advanced medical industry.


33 posted on 03/12/2006 8:09:00 AM PST by SALChamps03
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To: NonZeroSum
The fundamental problem with any pandemic is not the disease per se, but that it quickly overwhelms the medical system, which simply does not have sufficient resources in place to deal with mass casualties. Just how many hospital beds do you think there are within a 50 mile radius of you? Or doctors/nurses to care for the sick? In a real pandemic there won't be enough and so no matter how "advanced" the medical system is, most folks will essentially be on their own. Ironically, people will have to learn to help each other to survive rather than expecting "the government" to do it for them. For a coddled society like ours this will be the biggest shock of all.

If you want to get a feel for the problems do read The Great Influenza by John Barry, which is a fascinating history of the 1918 pandemic and the rise of modern medicine.
34 posted on 03/12/2006 8:09:18 AM PST by AustinBill (consequence is what makes our choices real)
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To: blam

I have a solution! Everybody buy a shotgun and 1000 rounds of shells. Start blowing up birds. And watch what you're shooting at.


35 posted on 03/12/2006 8:11:37 AM PST by BobS
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To: NonZeroSum

You took the words right out of my mouth. I'm also thinking sanitation factors.


36 posted on 03/12/2006 8:12:26 AM PST by twinzmommy
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To: Lessismore

If you're not prepared to die, you're not prepared to live.

"And I give unto them eternal life; and they shall never perish, neither shall any man. pluck them out of My hand"- John 10:28."


37 posted on 03/12/2006 8:16:00 AM PST by righttackle44 (The most dangerous weapon in the world is a Marine with his rifle and the American people behind him)
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To: Cold Heart
I've read about "the government" telling people to stock up for longer terms here on FR but not in the general news. Why are these reports not more common place in the news?

Beats me. But it appears the HHS is trying to get the word out in a measured way. Perhaps they are afraid of a panic? There are scattered reports out there. I suppose one could ask the same question about why "Able Danger" isn't big news, or the Swift Boat Vets got short shrift during a National Election?

Here are a few recent articles...

Threat of avian flu prompts call for preparedness

Wyoming, be ready for the flu

38 posted on 03/12/2006 8:18:13 AM PST by Gritty
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To: bkepley
You're so certain this virus will be the great one, I'm sure you must be stockpiled.

You really are having a hard time grasping this aren't you. By the way, please don't think you know what I am thinking from a few sentences. I am not "so certain" about anything. I just like to be prepared and look out for the future of my family.

Whistling past the graveyard has never been for me.

39 posted on 03/12/2006 8:22:12 AM PST by raybbr
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To: Gritty; Cold Heart
Why are these reports not more common place in the news?

Articles about it are pretty common in this area..........but of course I live in the middle of a chicken growing region.

Here's one from yesterday:

Backyard poultry farms on front line of flu fight

Many farmers in Delaware don't worry about chickens roaming free -- but the government does

40 posted on 03/12/2006 8:24:16 AM PST by Gabz (Smokers are the beta version)
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