First you have to think that China wants Taiwan that bad. Maybe they do, but it would be stupid, and China while they are alot of things, is not stupid.
They would lose aircraft and soldiers at close to the rate at which we (and Taiwan, and Japan, and So Korea...etc.) can expend ammunition.
And... they'd lose their entire source of revenue which is their newfound dependence on capitalism to support their country. They can't afford to tick off the rest of the world anymore.
It'll never happen.
It will happen at some point. the pressure on the government in China to take over Taiwan for nationalistic reasons is very strong. Also, there is a lot of discontent w/ the govt among the Chinese people over many issues. The ChiComs might try to do a Galtieri in order to stay in power, without consideing the consequences.
"They would lose aircraft and soldiers at close to the rate at which we (and Taiwan, and Japan, and So Korea...etc.) can expend ammunition."
It's unlikely south korea would actively participate in a war against China over Taiwan. Japan might, but only if we do. And if we have a weak, wimpy president, we will not help the, most likely.
The Taiwanese will not last long alone. They will be hit by hundreds , if not thousands of conventional ballistic and cruise missiles in the first day alone. Most of their AF and Navy would be taken out by that. The Chinese SA-10s can shoot down Taiwanese aircraft while they are still over Taiwan.
The Taiwan Navy has only 2 modern subs, plus 2 WW2 era ones. Not very impressive. China will take the Navy out pretty easily, especially with sub, ship and land launched AShMs.
And... they'd lose their entire source of revenue which is their newfound dependence on capitalism to support their country. They can't afford to tick off the rest of the world anymore.
It'll never happen.