How Viable Is The Chinese Model?

Asharq Alaswat (English) ^ | 3/3/06 | Amer Taheri

[gusopol3]

In a recent visit to China, the former American Secretary of State Henry Kissinger asked his guide to arrange a meeting with” my old friend Jiang Zemin.”

The guide responded with a dismissive gesture: That person is no longer available.

“That person”, of course, had been China’s President for a decade, before being eased out of office in one of those mysterious palace coups that the country has experienced since the 1970s.

[Brilliant]

Last year China emerged as the world’s fifth largest economic power. And, if the extrapolations prove correct, it will become the largest, ahead of the United States, by 2020.

“The future will be Chinese,” predicted Alain Peyrfitte, one of the first Europeans to write about the rising Asian colossus. President Hu Jintao goes even further: The best is yet to come!

When you've got 3x the number of people, having a larger economy is no sweat.

[gusopol3]

this Taheri fellow is always worth reading

[indcons]

Can you please provide the link again? The links in the original post goes to the home page of the paper's web site.

[SIDENET]

Good article. I just wonder why they included this picture of some not so straight-looking model wearing a Mao shirt.

[Zeppelin]

***When you've got 3x the number of people, having a larger economy is no sweat.***

Which is why I hope that China goes the way of the USSR if/when democracy occurs, and splits into several smaller states. fat chance, as strong as the economy is. yeah, the one that we fuel.

[Brilliant]

"But what are the weaknesses of “The Chinese Model”? According to most experts at least 10 could be identified:

• China’s economic growth is input driven. This means that massive amounts of labour, capital and raw material are used in volumes that might not be sustainable for ever."





Of course, every economy is in that category.

[rogue yam]

I'm following the link, but I can't find the article. I wonder what I'm doing wrong. Anyone?

[indcons]

Same here

[gusopol3]

it's on the sidebar to the right on the home page

[LegendHasIt]

Yeah, even searching the site, I can't find the China article, although I found a few different ones by Taheri.

[indcons]

http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=3&id=3995

[LegendHasIt]

Oh, there it is. They must be rotating them, because it wasn't there when I visited a few minutes ago.

Here is the direct link:
http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=3&id=3995

[rogue yam]

Thanks to all. Good article.

[indcons]

Money quote from the article:

"We cannot develop without freedom,” wrote Li Datong, the sacked editor of “ Freezing Point” supplement.

Without, perhaps, knowing it he was echoing Adam Smith, the first modern economist who showed that while despotic regimes may achieve rapid and impressive growth they can never develop a truly modern and self-sustaining economy."

What do other FReepers think about this quote? Doesn't the rapid Chinese economic development create conditions for a self-sustaining economy in the future?

[Sundog]

My daughter visited the place, was around Shanghai.

She spoke of brothels the size of walmarts here... 5000 whores in them. The lines of men visiting them went for blocks away but they moved at walking speed.

The terrible experiment with only 1 child allowed left 90 percent of the people picking male offspring.

You're looking at what happens to the female offspring; they are sold for a very high price and the parents can live nicely afterwards.

[edsheppa]

I think the author's point is that, if China doesn't dramatically improve the efficiency with which it uses labor, capital and raw materials, prices/shortages might dramatically limit future growth.

[fat city]

Great article- thanks.

[goldstategop]

The Achilles Heel of the system is the growing middle class. At some point it will be strong enough to demand the system be opened and at that point repression will have more costs than benefits. The Party will either have to change or be swept aside. I think China's leaders know the day is coming and they're preparing. They don't want it to come too soon since they're scared of the Soviet model and the subsequent meltdown that occurred. If it was up to them, they'd keep the status quo indefinitely but if it isn't possible, they hope they can engineer a soft landing.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[fso301]

What do other FReepers think about this quote?

Had Hitler been able to carry on, the extraordinarily productive German economy would have faced collapse once the supply of slaves was used up. Of course by then, the war would have been over and it would have been time to transition to a sustainable peacetime economy.

In the case of China, parallels can be drawn between use of the rural population and Hitlers use of foreign workers.