Posted on 03/05/2006 5:06:44 PM PST by NormsRevenge
In their battle to replace former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham, Republicans are embracing their party's ideals while distancing themselves from its record in Washington.
As deficits balloon and scandals multiply under a Republican-controlled Congress, these candidates are touting independence over party loyalty and lashing out at the GOP as often as they criticize Democrats.
Setting the tone is millionaire businessman Eric Roach, whose television commercials ask, “When did Congress begin losing touch?”
“I think it began when Republicans quit being Republicans,” Roach answers in the ad. “You know, they were sent to Congress to bring the budget in balance, to restore our fiscal responsibility, to strengthen our borders, to make our country stronger – and they ended up acting like Democrats.”
It's not unusual for Republicans to run for Congress while running against it. But in the 50th Congressional District, which has been rocked by Cunningham's scandalous behavior, the corrupting influences of money and power are foremost in the minds of voters.
Political scientist Gary Jacobson, an expert on Congress at the University of California San Diego, said what makes this election different for Republicans is that to win, they must campaign against their party's problems.
“So they can't pretend to be the most vigorous Democrat-basher,” Jacobson said. “They can't blame Democrats for the budget or Cunningham.”
Until the April 11 special election, the rhetoric is likely to get more fervent as 14 Republican candidates try to differentiate themselves from each other and Congress. Roach has already spent more than $750,000 – mostly his own money – on his campaign.
Two Democrats are in the race: Cardiff school board member Francine Busby and law student and retired bank executive Chris Young.
This week, Busby announced that she has raised more than $1 million. Much of it will be used to advertise that she's removed from what she and other Democrats are calling the “culture of corruption” in Washington.
One Libertarian and one independent are also running.
Maybe it's no wonder that the GOP candidates feel that to win, they must attack the status quo: It was Cunningham's greed that prompted the election. The Rancho Santa Fe Republican resigned in disgrace last year after admitting to taking $2.4 million in bribes.
On Friday, he was sentenced to eight years and four months in federal prison.
The resignation created a rare open seat in the 50th District, which stretches from Clairemont and La Jolla up to Escondido and Carlsbad. The district's registered voters are 44 percent Republican and 30 percent Democrat, with 22 percent declining to state an affiliation and smaller parties making up the rest.
In the April 11 special election, voters will select someone from the full slate of candidates to finish Cunningham's term, which runs through Jan. 3. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent, the top vote-getter from each party will be in a runoff election June 6.
That's also the date of the primary to fill the next two-year term in the 50th District. Most candidates running in the special election also expect to run in the primary election.
Democrats hope the Cunningham scandal and other missteps by Republicans will sway swing voters and independents their way. Democrats had controlled the House for 40 years when then-Rep. Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., in 1994 proposed his “Contract With America,” which promised tax cuts, smaller government and a strong defense.
After Republicans won control of both houses of Congress that year, the GOP's popularity crested 2000, when it also captured the White House. But on its watch, the federal budget has gone from having a $128 billion surplus to a deficit of more than $337 billion this year. Since his election, President Bush has never vetoed a spending bill.
“We are in charge, but we still need reform,” said Gingrich, a former House speaker.
As he sees it, the first wave of Republican reform washed through when Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, the second with his “Contract With America,” and the third must happen now.
He said the 50th District race – and the candidates' pressing need to appear as conservative as possible without seeming as Republican as possible – reflects that reality.
“Republicans are coming to grips with the dilemma: Can we reform enough to remain a majority, or do the Democrats have to take over before we are forced to reform?” Gingrich asked. “I think we can stay a majority.”
Being in control has led to another problem for Republican candidates: no real Democratic bogeyman to rail against.
“Even in recent history, Republicans had a convenient Democratic target,” said Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “During the Clinton administration, they ran against Clinton. Then (former Senate Majority Leader) Tom Daschle and the obstructionists of the Senate, but now that they control, if you want to separate yourself from Washington, you have to separate yourself from other Republicans.”
GOP candidates across the nation are striking similar independent poses, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. In Ohio, for instance, Republican candidates are shying away from being associated with Republican Gov. Bob Taft, who was convicted of violating ethics laws, Sabato said.
“In California, with the strong Democratic tilt and Bush's low popularity, it's important for Republicans to appear as independent as possible,” he said. “But they can't go too far because then they'll alienate the base.”
Candidates react So the Republicans candidates are forced into a peculiar dance. A survey of Republicans in the race shows that a majority support the president's policies, but also see the need to cut spending and reform ethics in Congress.
At a recent debate in Rancho Santa Fe, state Sen. Bill Morrow said that as a congressman, he would fight corruption the same way he did as a Marine Corps prosecutor. He went on to assail government spending.
“In the last five years, federal spending has increased 33 percent, double the rate of the Clinton years. It's inexcusable; it's inexcusable,” Morrow said. “The message has got to be received by the Republican leadership in Congress. I'm here to give it.”
Jacobson said he expects that message to resonate with Republican voters.
“It doesn't hurt candidates to criticize them (Republicans in the House), because the criticism is shared with their Republican voters,” Jacobson said. “Most are unhappy with corruption and spending . . . so their charge is to prove they are the most anti-corrupt. They are competing for mantle of who will be the toughest on the deficit.”
Another way is for candidates to distance themselves from the current Congress and associate themselves with earlier, headier Republican times.
“We have to prove who we are again,” defense contractor and candidate Scott Orren said. “Ten years ago, Newt Gingrich started a revolution, and that's the type of leadership I want to see back in Washington.”
Lobbyist and former Rep. Brian Bilbray often boasts of his endorsement from Gingrich in this race and that he was a member of the congressional freshman class in 1995, the year Republicans took control of both houses of Congress.
Other candidates invoke Reagan. San Diego political consultant John Dadian said the safest thing a candidate can say is, “I'm a Reagan Republican.”
What it will take to win
In crafting their messages, the Republicans are scrambling for small percentages of the vote because there are so many candidates and because special elections typically have a low voter turnout. The leading Democrat, Busby, ran against Cunningham two years ago and has strong support and good name recognition among Democrats in the region, as well as in Washington.
“It's a conservative district, but not hard right,” Sabato said. “I happen to think a Republican will win eventually, but this could be interesting. Francine Busby could end up doing better than anybody expected.”
San Diego County Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring said that's why victory will go to the candidate who can build the biggest base of passionate supporters.
“I think the crucial factor is how many 'broken glass' supporters a candidate has – that is, supporters who will crawl over a mile of broken glass to vote for their candidate,” Nehring said.
Such supporters will make the difference because they'll drive their own cars to pick up absentee ballots or take people to the polls, Pitney said.
To build that base, candidates are filming television commercials, running newspaper ads, walking door to door and attending several forums each week through April 11.
At each, the call for a better Republican Party is loud.
“Twenty-five years ago, Ronald Reagan inspired a nation with a bold agenda that ushered in an era of values and prosperity,” businessman Bill Hauf says in one of his radio advertisements. “I want to restore Reagan's vision. I want to remove the grip that special interests have on Congress. I want to stop out-of-control and wasteful spending, cut record deficits and secure our borders and our homeland.”
From Cardiff, one of those beach towns. She has the money, a lot of it, and is running on an anti corruption campaign. Being otherwise a relative blank slate, except going with the wave on the UAE deal, might be a plus. I don't know. She probably will not get away with coming across an empty dress in this district. She either has the depth, or she doesn't.
True, but the fact is, I would not do that ever, no matter how lean and hungry I was. I grant you, that ethics is a learned behavior, and it takes a lot of years of good habits to become deeply ingrained in one's psych and being. Trust me.
She is harping on having a vote right now, which of course is irresponsible, but perhaps effective, for the moment.
Kerry carried Del Mar, Encinitas, San Diego, and Solana Beach easily.
I like Bill Morrow a lot, but I think I'll vote for Howard. He has a track record and he keeps his word. His actions speak louder than words.
I like eric roach myself.
I think uke was the front runner b/c he dumped a ton of ads early, but he comes off a tad rinoish to me. He doesnt really talk domestic issues at all.
Busby running on an anti-corruption campaign, after sitting on the school board?
That's just too funny!
After all is said & done, this race will come down to $ and name ID. I'm almost sure we'll see Roach, Uke, and Bilbray leading the pack, but I don't see Bilbray being able to sustain it. Want to know why? Here it is:
Between Roach & Uke, Uke has the edge due to his track record. Roach hasn't really done anything besides make $, which Uke did as well.
Yea true, but to my recollection uke almost never talks about domestic issues and doesnt really come off as a conservative candidate. I mean in a district like ours, we really ought to have the most conservative guy possible. (i suppose ideally that means support kaloogian, but i think a vote for him would be throwing my vote away, that is unless he was polling pretty close then i'd consider shifting support).
$750,000 doesn't buy what it used to, especially in California...
I guess it depends what you mean by domestic issues. I've heard him say some good stuff about social security, veterans issues, and even immigration. And yes, in my opinion a vote for Howard is a waste of a vote...
Uke just comes off to me as more of a busuiness as usual republican, something about him i'm just not sure about. I mean for all i know eric roach could just be a rino who knows how to talk the talk, but i figure might as well give him a shot.
Oh yeah, he's definitely a good talker alright, definitely a better talker than Uke. As far as your label for Uke, I think he's a very traditional republican. Nothing fancy, just common sense kind of stuff, like infrastructure for our roads. Just sounds more appealing to me than the other ideological crap that's out there; I think people are getting sick of politicians telling them how to think and live their lives...
Doesn't matter anymore:
http://sdpolitics.blogsome.com/2006/03/12/eric-roachs-business-partner-tried-for-pedophilia/
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