Maybe your scenario is right. I've also read that Brokeback Mountain was hanging on in the theatres just for the Oscars. If it won, then they were hoping the box office would start to be better. If it lost, it would sink out of sight pretty fast.
If it weren't for the Brits, with classics like Lord of the Rings, or decent Morally based fantasies like The Chronicles of Narnia, and War of the Worlds, the films that gained the largest box office purse would surely indicate what type of film the public will still pay money to see.
But Hollywood seems to miss that