Posted on 03/04/2006 2:01:52 PM PST by FairOpinion
For those who miss the prose of Matthew Dowd, here's his first memo to Team Arnold, for Team Arnold.
His line:
"...this race is not, as the Democratic operatives and many pundits say, a referendum on Governor Schwarzenegger. Races for governor, especially the governor of the largest State in the Union, are about a choice. This campaign will be a choice between Arnold and the Democratic nominee, a choice between what Arnold has done in office and what the Democratic nominee has done in his career, and most important, a choice between the vision Arnold has for California in the next four years contrasted with where the Democratic nominee wants to take the state."
Full memo after the jump.
MEMORANDUM
TO: Team Arnold
FROM: Matthew Dowd, Senior Advisor
RE: Current California Political Environment
DATE: March 2, 2006
With the new Field Poll out this week and the Democratic candidates launching their first television ads, I think it is an important time to examine the current political environment in California.
First, no matter the ups and downs of the poll numbers, this race will be very close. If you look at previous general election voting patterns, the swing vote in the governor's campaign for re-election is roughly five or six points. Therefore, with the Democratic nominee coming to Election Day with approximately 47% of the vote, a "huge" victory would be 52 or 53%, and the race will likely be closer.
Second, this race is not, as the Democratic operatives and many pundits say, a referendum on Governor Schwarzenegger. Races for governor, especially the governor of the largest State in the Union, are about a choice. This campaign will be a choice between Arnold and the Democratic nominee, a choice between what Arnold has done in office and what the Democratic nominee has done in his career, and most important, a choice between the vision Arnold has for California in the next four years contrasted with where the Democratic nominee wants to take the state. Thus, without an opponent, the current numbers only capture half the story.
Third, in the latest Field Poll, Governor Schwarzenegger's overall approval is at 40% "a net of minus nine." This is a ten point improvement from the last Field Poll in October 2005 (when approval was a net minus 19). Looking back at the last Governor of California to win re-election (Gray Davis in 2002), Davis had a similar approval rating in 2002, when the Field Polls showed his approval between 39 to 42%! Again, races are about choices, as the 2002 Governor's race proved again.
In looking at vote goals for the campaign, Arnold is right at the 80-85% he needs among Republicans, and is today within striking distance of where he needs to be among Independents (53%) and Democrats (22%). And consistent with how Arnold (and McClintock) did in the 2003 recall campaign, getting 35% of the Latino vote and 20% of the African-American vote is well within our grasp.
While we have much work ahead of us, and still await an opponent, the Governor is well-positioned in this very close race.
I think Freepers well understand the new mantra since operatives were dispatched to FR the minute the gang survived their encounter with conservatives Republicans in San Jose.
Those numbers parse out at something like 48%, not 40%. Something is wrong with the numbers. I suspect Pubbie turnout will be low in California in 2006.
"I suspect Pubbie turnout will be low in California in 2006."
===
Well, in that case, say hello to Gov. Angelides.
I think Westly might win the primary. We shall see.
Angelides has the support of most Dems and their "big guns".
And, of course, the ilk herd ...
Much of the far west and southwest may have to be written off in the next twenty years. Hopefully, the Americans left there can make arrangements to move to Idaho and Montana. The west will become a part of Mexico, as it once was.
The upper northwest appears ready to adopt shria law. Their Moslem masters may allow them to practice their secular ways if they pay a tax. But then again, maybe not.
Freedom will be confined to the red states and we will have to battle to keep it.
Westly has a large personal bank account. Money is all that matters.
Not much of a choice. Hard to tell the difference.
Even if the Dem nominee is Westley.
When the choice is Arnold or Westley, no real conservative would prefer Westley.
Your scenario may be a prophecy. But I would give it fifty years instead of twenty to become reality.
"Not much of a choice. Hard to tell the difference."
===
That's your claim, which first of all is not correct.
And second of all, even if supposedly, hypothetically everything being equal, (which I repeat again, is NOT true) why would you prefer the Democrat to a Republican?
Probably. From Weintraub last week:
Quick question: What percentage of Republicans, Democrats and independents voted for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger when he was first elected in October 2003?
Answer: About 77 percent of Republicans, 21 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents, according to an exit poll by the Los Angeles Times.
Next question: What percentage of each of these groups approves of the job Schwarzenegger is doing now?
Answer: About 70 percent of Republicans, 20 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents, according to two recent polls by the Public Policy Institute of California.
I see two Democrats.
I know, I know! Because she's here at FR under false pretense and as a fifth columnist she desires to alienate as many conservatives as possible, all the while trying to make it acceptable to vote demoncrap.
Did you catch this?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1588228/posts?page=34#34
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1588228/posts?page=49#49
Is McClintock a Democrat, according to you?
You are more optimistic than I am.
Strange question on a conservative form.
Freepers don't necessarily prefer Republicans over Democrats. Freepers prefer conservatives over liberals. There are, albeit rare in California, actual conservatives in the Democrat Party. The CDP has almost no conservatives because it is the party's policy to extinguish them at birth.
Of course, as is painfully obvious, the CRP is now infected by liberals.
BTW the answer is neither and there is some hope for Freepers because the filing deadline isn't until next week. Maybe a Republican conservative will run against the CRP's European liberal in the primary. Let's hope.
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