John Williams'
Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
This is the same idiot who believes that there are more than 5 million discouraged workers out there....somewhere, even though the BLS and conservative research organizations can't manage to find them. John Williams does manage to sell a lot of books though.
Ad hominem arguments are a leading indicator of weak minds at work. Anyone who has followed official economic statistics over several decades will recognize Williams is very familiar with how they are generated, and has been fairly insightful in cataloging the detioration of quality over those decades ("conservative research organizations" tend to notice this during Democrat administrations, and "liberal research organizations" tend to notice this during Republican administrations; working users of economic statistics have been noticing this over all administrations).
Williams also points those who are willing to look past the end of their noses to these published reports on the condition of Federal finances:
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/03frusg/03frusg.pdf http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/04frusg/04frusg.pdf http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/05frusg/05frusg.pdf The earliest report is fairly candid about the failings of Federal accounting processes, the later claim various improvements. I have my doubts, but in any case there is a lot there for anyone who reads them carefully.
For example, see the last two paragraphs on p 12 of the most recent report for FY 2005 (p. 16 of the PDF document, p 12 of the printed document) under the heading "other responsibilities". To the nominal (on balance sheet) debt of nearly $10 trillion, add another nearly $50 trillion "off balance sheet" liability.
Of the $10 trillion balance sheet debt, about $4.6 trillion is held by private or non-US government individuals or agencies; the rest is in "trust funds" to offset various off-balance-sheet liabilities (e.g., the social security trust fund). So, the total liability is about $55 trillion, but a total of about $60 trillion will have to be raised from taxation from somewhere to pay off the Treasury debt and meet the "off balance sheet" responsibilities; meanwhile the interest payments on the Treasury debt are absorbing a substantial fraction of annual tax revenues (see the report for details). Note that the estimates for Social Security and Medicare include costs only for those currently in these systems. As new participants are added, more liabilities will be created. To put this in some perspective, annual GDP is about $12 Trillion. The likely "solution" will be a combination of higher FICA tax rates (they are already published for decades into the future - - check them out if you want to see a nightmarish trend) and deliberate devaluation of the currrency through accelerated inflation. How long this can continue without a fiscal breakdown is anyone's guess.
Then consider the "qualified" opinion rendered by the Comptroller's office in the letter on p.27 - 30 (p. 31 - 34 in the PDF document numbering). If you read similar descriptions of accounting deficiencies in a private corporation's financial reports, do you think you would be enthusiastic about investing in its stock, regardless of stock analysts' favorable rhetoric? Would it even be able to maintain its listing on a major exchange? I suspect not.
So, reveal a weak mind if you wish, by dismissing the analyst with a mindless epithet, but Williams' analysis of the data quality is worthy of attention, whether you take his inferences from that quality to future events seriously or not (I think he is less reliable there, as are most "economic projections" but that's not why I read his reports carefully).
Anyone who has followed official economic statistics over several decades will recognize Williams is very familiar with how they are generated, and has been fairly insightful in cataloging the detioration of quality over those decades Anyone who still has eyesight can just look around to know that Williams is full of it. Williams' research is like most scientific research these days. He doesn't conduct his research to show the truth. He does so to reach the conclusion he needs to sell more books. This is a perfect example of why charlatan's like Williams will always make money selling fear.
("conservative research organizations" tend to notice this during Democrat administrations..
Are you claiming that groups like NR and The Heritage Foundation knowingly manipulate information for their own ends? We, as conservatives, know the Dem's are habitual liars and confidence men. Sounds like you're defending the lefties.
The earliest report is fairly candid about the failings of Federal accounting processes, the later claim various improvements
Williams has been touting these fallacies for many years now yet his predictions of doom and gloom never quite materialize. He does manage to sell a great number of books to people who want to believe what he says is true.
Our external debt is created by government spending more than they take in. Since Bush took office, the external debt has increased by $2 trillion. Our net worth (that's debt subtracted from assets) has increased by more than $10 trillion during the same period of time to a record $51.1 trillion. Even a week minded individual can understand the math here. When your net worth increases five times faster than your debt, things may not be as bad as the book sellers claim.
Yes, we have a lot of unfunded liabilities. Social Security may go bankrupt or the government may be forced to raise taxes. Maybe reform will pass and private accounts will save the day. No one knows for sure. Even if SS goes bankrupt, or they are forced to raise our taxes, it will have little impact on our incredible net worth.
Guys like Williams like to talk about our debt without any discussion about our assets. That should tell you all you need to know about his agenda. American households own more than $62 trillion in assets. How much do you think American corporations and the US government own?
So, reveal a weak mind if you wish, by dismissing the analyst with a mindless epithet, but Williams' analysis of the data quality is worthy of attention
Williams' tripe should earn the scorn of all people who have minds because it's really not that hard to figure out that the fear he's selling is overblown. For another, more rational opinion regarding his claim that there are five million discouraged workers in this country, I'll offer this:
""The percentage of unemployed people who have given up looking for work is low, by historical standards, and has recently been dropping. We know this, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the same agency that counts the number of unemployed people, also counts the number of discouraged workers — or the number of people who have given up looking for work and say they have done so because they believe there is no appropriate work to be found." "Here's what the BLS found: Only about a third of a percent of American workers are classified in the "discouraged" category. That's right: Ninety-nine and two-thirds percent are not discouraged. This is hardly the teeming mass of employment despondency that we have been led to believe is out there."
The Myth of the Discouraged Worker
I'd say, just from looking around me, that NR's take on this issue is much closer to reality than the guy looking to sell books to the black helicopter crowd.