Posted on 02/28/2006 9:38:21 PM PST by Jean S
The Republican Party appears to be coalescing around the happy assumption that, while Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, she cannot be elected. So, the self-delusive logic says, she is really God's gift to the Republican Party.
This optimistic set of assumptions comes through loud and clear in the comments the president and Karl Rove made to Bill Sammon as he interviewed them for his new book Strategery. But their confidence indicates simply that they don't even begin to understand what they will be up against in a Hillary candidacy.
It has always been Mrs. Clinton's strategery to wrap herself in the generic. By embracing a set of liberal issues, she avoids personal scrutiny. By identifying with working women who are "trying to balance career and family", she buys a pass on charges of a conflict of interest over Rose Law Firm representation of Arkansas while her husband was governor. And now, by hiding behind the generic question of "Are we ready for a woman president?" she invites the question of whether we want this particular woman in the Oval Office.
The cultural forces that Hillary's candidacy will unleash - from the media, from Hollywood and from the cultural icons who decree our lifestyles - will be far beyond those that normally line up behind a presidential candidate. A small foretaste emerged in ABC TV's show "Commander in Chief," in which Geena Davis plays a female president who masters the men and the crises that litter her path. What other presidential candidacy was foreshadowed by a prime-time, hour-long weekly television show?
Hillary's candidacy will not be Democratic so much as demographic and not nearly as political as it will be cultural. The pent-up emotions of half of America will rise to the surface just as Catholics rallied to JFK's candidacy in 1960.
And white women are the swing vote in our politics. George W. Bush carried them by only 1 percent in 2000 and lost the popular vote. He walked away with white women in 2004 by a 14-point margin and carried the electorate by 3.5 points.
White men will vote against Hillary, of course, but are they likely to exceed the 2-1 margin by which they backed Bush in 2004? Or is the GOP organization really going to be able to turn out more than 62 million voters, an increase of 12 million over its 2000 total with very little increase in national population?
Blacks will vote for Hillary with genuine affection rather than the mere duty that animated their support of John Kerry, and Hispanics, who strongly backed Hillary in New York state, are likely to return to the overwhelmingly Democratic vote they cast in 2000, rather than the more balanced ballots they cast in 2004.
In the face of these demographic arguments, can Hillary's admittedly brittle public performances assure her defeat? Will voters see through her posture of moderation and hawkishness on terrorism? White men will. But white women won't. And Hillary will be elected.
Last year, my wife and I wrote about the urgency of a Condoleezza Rice candidacy to nullify Hillary's advantages. Since then, Rice, despite her best efforts to deny a candidacy, has caught fire among the American electorate. In the most recent Gallup poll, 12 percent named her, unaided, as the Republican they would like to see run, and the most up to date head-to-head poll, by the Marist Institute, shows her locked in a three-way tie with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, with each candidate winning 22 percent of the Republican primary vote.
Those who listen to the melodious tones of Bush and Rove do a disservice to our country. The threat of a Hillary Clinton victory is real and present, and the usual suspects - the likes of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Virginia Sen. George Allen, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, New York Gov. George Pataki et al. are not likely to be able to defeat her. Rudy could, but he won't be nominated because of his social liberalism. McCain could, but he lacks popularity with the GOP rank and file.
Do not underestimate Hillary Clinton's chances to win!
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.
What's your prediction?
You know what--I usually don't agree with Morris, but I'm afraid that this time he is correct. The media will embrace Hillary, and we have never seen anything like what they will do for her. If McCain was a media darling, you ain't seen nothin' yet!!
Be afraid, be very afraid!!
Rice wont be on any ticket.
Has he ever been right on anything?
NO!
PLEEEEEEEAAASSSE buy my book.
Ohhhh Dicky!!
Look at all them toes! Is that your paradise?
Didn't he write a book last month saying she can't win. He really is obsessed with the Clintons.
Yes, he did. Just think, he could write 2 more books before the election. One will be right.
shut. up! Wodda nightmare.
argghh. McCain will never get the nomination. Of the Republican party, that is.
If hill is elected Prez there will be mass resignations in the military. Those posts will be filled with milquetoasts and metrosexuals. Our military will be a joke in less than a year of a Hill presidency.
I for one am afraid also. I do not believe she will win but given that traitor kerry got so close...she does have a chance.
A Hill presidency would be a disaster of unbelievable magnitude!
He could write 2 more books before next week.
If he is lucky, Hillary will let Dick suck her toes.
She can't run because The Twenty-second Amendment of the United States Constitution sets a term limit for the President of the United States, providing that "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once." Prior to the adoption of the amendment, the constitution set no limit on the number of presidential terms
"Cultural Forces" like the Taliban and al Quada (who will contribute money to her campaign), Illegal immigrants (who will for her), the dead (who will rise from the grave and also vote for her), welfare derelects and social security receipiants (who sold their votes to the Democrats ages ago) and of course, we can't forget the "Chocolate" city...
You are right. That's my fear too. If the nuts voted for Kerry, would they vote for the Beast? I fear they would.
Regarding the subject line. I am disgusted with Dick Morris. Not because of a toe thing, but because he's a just a kiss up to anyone who will listen to him.
Hannity disgusts me for keeping him on the show.
I'm finding I'm getting more and more tired of Hannity's show lately.
Give me Rush any day.
The only noteworthy information in the entire article is that Dick Morris still has a wife.
I tend to agree with Morris on this one. I don't even want her heinous to win the primary. Remember, it was a million -to-one that she'd even run for the Senate, let alone win in 2000. I don't want that b*tch anywhere close to one "fair" election away from the WH.
I'm going to be unpopular and back up Morris on this one. He's worked with the Clintons and he understands their abilities and strategies; for that alone he's worth listening to. I work alongside enough liberals and quasimoderate weak-spined voters to know that his analysis of Hillary's support might just be strong enough to get her into the White House... not to mention the certainty of Democrat party vote fraud, media bias in her favor, and the full force of the Hollywood and television programming backing her up.
I remember Morris talking on Fox a few months ago. In passing, as an aside, he mentioned that once Hillary is elected she will create a new form of secret police. Like I said, he may or may not be prescient about Hillary, but he's worked alongside her, and knows her proclivities and direction.
Remember: The American people managed to elect Bill Clinton twice and Jimmy Carter once to the Presidency. Their innate wisdom is not consistently dependable.
That is why we need Condoleezza.
Even if she should announce that if nominated she will not run and if elected she will not serve...well, we'll just nominate and elect her anyway and plunk her down in the Oval Office. She can figure skate and play the piano (which is essentially what Eisenhower did).
MESSAGE TO CONDI: YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU, SWEETIE. NOW STOP BEING COY!
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