These are goofy statistics. Time frames are too short; and sample sizes are too small.
Many places can be influenced by increase or decrease of new homes in the market, or of condo conversions--just to name two factors which often skew such statistics.
The figures are also delayed. By the time figures are published, changes have set in.
Phoenix shows a very high rate of price increases. Yet Phoenix is overbuilt and finished new homes sit in inventory.
If these new homes are higher priced than the overall existing housing stock, the new sales will pull up the overall average sales price.
But to move these completed new homes, builders are giving big incentives in many regions. Costly upgrades (floors, appliances, closing costs, etc).
Those incentives don't show on the price paid, but they should be.
New home starts will slow soon, as they get scared about the slower sales and standing inventory. Completed new homes unsold are at a record high, I read this morning.
Housing fluctuations don't affect me. If the meter rate goes up, I just park somewhere else.
The number of home listings in metro Phoenix is at an all-time high. In January, there were 30,113 houses for sale across the Valley. A year ago, there were 3,402.
Supply....demand.....sorry, I don't see much appreciation in Phoenix in the short term....