The Saudis can pump 10 million bbls a day for the next 200 years if one believes their stated oil reserves. We have all heard for decades how oil is running out, but somehow, someway the oil companies have been able to discover new supplies to keep up with ever increasing demand. Whatever happens, it will be a gradual weaning away from oil as the principle energy source. The arabs will have time to make the transition if they are wise enough.
I'm not sure anyone really believes what the Saudis say about their oil reserves. Its a major point of contention in the industry and only increases the risk associated with investments in ultra-deep water and harsh environment exploration. The Saudis maintain that uncertainty in order to manipulate the market to their long-term advantage. None of the majors wants to sink $4-5 billion in a new, high-risk facility and then have the price fall back to below $30 or even $20 a barrel as it has done many times in the last 20 years. The Saudis keep them and the capital markets guessing. Dubai has done well. Six years ago oil was over 25 percent of their economy. When I was working in Italy two years ago it was down to about 12 percent. Now, you say its down to around 6. That is a pretty impressive transformation in such a short time.