I also agree that there's a large degree of probability in "success." But we just don't know. To say that the Muslim world is volatile is akin to saying that Asia is large.
We don't know what the future holds. There's been a lot of initial progress, but there are some big questions too. As an example, why is Saddam being allowed to control his trial? They've allowed that to be turned into a media circus when IMO we should have been seeing the bottom of his shoes from a gallows by now. Perhaps exagerating a bit, but it's a circus. And just as the outcome of the Palestinian elections, we just don't know what will happen.
Once there's a free country in the muslim world, and this is entirely key, that allows Christians, Jews, and other religious contingents, to live in peace and with all civil and human rights, a concept that runs entirely counter to the Koran, then I'll be a much bigger believer.
Turkey.
That there's a difference between Iraq and Japan? Sorry, but that observation, in itself, doesn't constitute an interesting point of any kind.
Many countries are different from each other. I don't know what you think we are supposed to be able to conclude from that.
I also agree that there's a large degree of probability in "success." But we just don't know
And I agree that we just don't know! But so what?? We never "know" what's going to happen! Why do you think it's interesting or relevant to point out that we don't "know" what's going to happen?
How spoiled are we anyway, that we expect to "know" with certainty what's going to happen in any violent conflict we are involved in?