No, that had nothing to do with it. Read the post. Murtha ranks #2 in Congress for bringing home the pork. I have been to that district and it is sickening to see the number of Government contracting offices located there. Their paychecks might as well have Murtha's name written on them. The fact that it leaned Kerry or Bush is completely irrelevant. This is pocketbook politics at its worse, and I really don't see how you overcome it. Murtha is not going to lose. Shoot the Holiday Inn I stayed at in Johnstown, PA even had a big painting of Murtha on the wall. Johnstown would be a ghost town without Murtha.
No, it's not. Political science is called "science" for a reason. The numbers give you a starting point of core voters for each party. Now, setting aside for simplicity;s sake any changes due to redistricting, Murtha has over the years been able to draw GOP-leaning voters. How? Not just pork. He's been a strong military hawk, pro-life, pro-gun. Guess which set of voters he recently ticked off with his little "failure in Iraq" stunt.
I'd still rate Murtha a favorite, but this is by no means an absolute impossibility.