John Kerry did carry the PA-12 in 2004, but by only 51%-49%. I would be willing to wager that Lynn Swann will carry the district in the gubernatorial race with between 52%-55%.
While a pro-life, pro-gun, senior Democrat Congressman like Jack Murtha would normally be unbeatable in a socially conservative, economically liberal-to-moderate district such as this one, his irresponsible statements regarding the Iraq War make him potentially vulnerable. If Irey runs strongly in her home base around Washington County and in suburban Westmoreland County, she might be able to make up for Murtha's big advantage in the Johnstown area and surprise everyone on election day.
Murtha's racked up huge margins in the past, but as you addressed he completely changed the equation by lurching left.
Interesting that Kerry's margin in the district was so narrow when Murtha always wins overwhelmingly. I see he was first elected in 1974, the year of the big Demo tidal wave following Nixon's resignation. In the previous election, the GOP incumbent won by a large margin. He did not run for reelection and Murtha succeeded him.
It would be great if Irey could beat him. It sure would look bad for the defeatist crowd.