[Termite_Commander]

Yup. They found it needs two mutatations on the Glycine Receptor Array to become highly transmissible between mammals. I can't remember where the article is. I'll look around and see if I can find it for you.

Also, I think that it may actually only need one mutation, because the change at 190 increased its transmissibility and virulence, and the other mutation only reduced its affinity for birds.

That's why you've got people saying things like this now.

John Oxford, Professor of Virology at Barts, claims the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic was "high and within a span of, say, 18 months".

Human Avian flu pandemic risk increases

[bonfire]

Thanks. I'm beginning to take this seriously. Not panicking, just paying attention.

[tatown]

"Yup. They found it needs two mutatations on the Glycine Receptor Array to become highly transmissible between mammals." - Termite_Commander

The fact is that the experts don't know how many mutations it will take to get H5N1 to go H2H. Dr. Nabarro just got his ass handed to him for suggesting "2 mutations away", because he couldn't prove it. If you can show us where one expert has demonstrated what it takes, then show us. During an interview with Dr. Jeff Taubenberger (the man who re-recreated the 1918 pan-virus) a couple of months ago, he was asked to evaluate how many mutations it would take to make H5N1 "1918-Like" (assuming it is even following a parallel evolution, which is unknown). The follow is what he had to say:

“But whereas the 1918 virus may have had 30 changes, the H5 viruses that we see have no more than a small handful of these changes. Luckily, if this is the process that is going on, we are seeing a very early development. We are at a very early stage.” - Dr. Taubenberger late-2005