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RWR8189 , great article, I recommend everyone reading it.

Knitebane, as regards the Chinese PLAN capability. The Chinese are deploying more and more dangerous diesel/electric subs. WHile in the open sea they are no real match for our nuclear attack boats, in litorral waters, where they can wait for us to come to them, they can be very dangerous. They do not have the speed to manuever or intercept on the high seas, but they are very, very quiet.

In addition, the Chinese on the surfrcae are deploying more and more sophisticated and deangerous surface combatants in some numbers. Particularly the Sovs that they are buying from Russia. The Moskit missile is a very dangerous and capapable weapon system for any vessel that gets within range of its 250 km capability...and is able to be targeted thereby (which is the real issue for the PLAN). In addition, there new type 52C and 51C area-air defense, Aegis-like (sophisticated battle management PAR radars, vertical launch missiles, etc.) are also a concern because we have to achieve air dominance over the straits.

You can see and research most all of these things on my site (and elsewhere):

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA

And, as CrawDaddy pointed out, you can read about a possible scenario where it all goes bad for us in:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

If the Russians add their subs and surface combatants to that mix, it just makes the nut that much harder to crack.

The Chinese are developing their capabilities, rapidly, to challenge us. My bet is that that challenge will not come until several other things take place. To white:

We get emroiled in at least another major regional war, perhaps two. Iran and Korea come to mind.
They hold their Olympics in 2008 giving them time to field many more of their new platforms and technology.
After they see how the 2008 elections in the US turn out. If we get a Clonton-like democrat...then, IMHO, the probability for a major moveby the Chinese communists goes way up. If they feel they can get it doen based on number one, they may try anyway.

Now, it is my hope that the Bush administration will continue to develop a strong response to this. The Chinese are getting in bed with every adversary we have (Iran, N. Korea, Venezuela, etc.) and setting themselves up to be in a "blocking" position as regards our strategic interests. We need to address them like Reagan did the Soviets in the 1980s. It will be painful at this point, but not nearly as painful as what happens if we do not.

Sorry for the lenght...just my opinion.

Thanks CrawDaddy, for the very kind words about the series. Please consider a review here on FR to that effect if you are so inclined. Again, thanks, and God's best to you and yours.