Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents

Teagan Goddard's Political Wire ^ | February 16, 2006 | Stuart Rothenberg

[Clintonfatigued]

Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)

He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."

[fieldmarshaldj]

We're facing a similar problem in Tennessee with our Governor and his corrupt 'Rat Administration (no viable challenger). I see Kline has a RINO-turned-'Rat apostate challenger. Kline's probably the best statewide officeholder KS has had in years.

[AuH2ORepublican]

CF, I don't think more than 1-3 of the districts you mentioned will change hands in 2006:

"Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH). Speaking for myself, Bob Ney is on his way out. Word has it, he's going to be indicted. His district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so."

---

President Bush got 57% in Ney's CD, and no prominent Democrat chose to run against him. The only way that Ney might lose is if it is apparent that he's going to get convicted (a mere indictment won't be enough in such a Republican district with such a weak RAT field, and if it looks like Ney will get convicted he'll be forced to retire and will be replaced by a Republican who will win handily.

"Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority."

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It will take more than a former one-term GOP Congressman running to defeat DeLay, especially since Stockman represented only like 18% of the district and it was 10 years ago. If Stockman can somehow get 20% of the vote, he might throw the election to Lampson, but Stockman will fall far short of that and DeLay will win by 10% or more (especially since Stockman will help split the anti-DeLay vote and is better known in Lampson's base, thus taking a lot of votes from Lampson).

"Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN). It's true, Hostettler has faced several very different Democrats and always come out on top. He's never faced one as popular as Evansville Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. A poll taken a few months back showed Ellsworth slightly ahead."

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I've written about this one and nauseum, and I still don't see a reason for concern. President Bush got 62% in the district in 2004; Republican incumbents do not get defeated in districts that are so conservative.

"Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA). Gerlach has won two elections by 51% to 49% in a district that was specifically designed to elect him. Wealthy Lois Murphy is running again in a more favorable political climate."

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That one is a district about which to worry. Gerlach needs to run hard, point to his accomplishments, and paint Murphy as too liberal for the district. I think Gerlach is the favorite going in, but it will probably be another close one, especially with Rendell increasing turnout in Montco.

"Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). Simmons has won two difficult reelections in a district that usually votes for Democrats. Ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney is running again. But Simmons has made no mistakes, so Courtney's chances hinge on a major Democrat victory, something which is not guaranteed."

---

By the numbers, this is the second most heavily Democrat district currently represented by a Republican in the House, but of course a district in New England that gave President Bush 44% in 2004 is hardly as heavily Democrat as, say, the OH-13 where Bush got the same percentage and where we're trying to win the open seat. Simmons got 54% in both 2002 and 2004, and with RINO Governor Jody Rell coasting to reelection it will be very difficult for Courtney to have better luck this time.

"Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM). The first female veteran to serve in Congress, Wilson represents a very marginal district. She has won by increasing margins over the years, but faces her toughest opponent yet in state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Anything can happen."

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This one will be close. Wilson's margins have increased, but are not as high as they should be in a district where President Bush got 48%, and it seems like RAT Gov. Richardson will be reelected easily, so Madrid should not be taken lightly.

"Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT). RINO Shays was nearly defeated by Westport Mayor Diane Farrell last time, and she's back for a rematch. The disctrict is trending to the left politically, and while Shays is liberal on domestic issues, his strong support for Bush's foreign policy has angered the moonbat left, which is a presence in this area."

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President Bush got 46% in the district in 2004, and the lower turnout in 2006 will help Shays, as will RINO Gov. Rell coasting to reelection. I betcha Shays wins by over 6%.

"Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN). In 2004, the wealthy Sordel very narrowly unseated Democrat Baron Hill. Hill is seeking to make a comeback. But Hill had the advantages of incumbency last time, and won't this year."

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I agree, if Hill couldn't hold the seat in 2004 he won't get it back in 2006. President Bush got 59% in 2004, and the only statewide race will be GOP Senator Lugar coasting to reelection, so Sodrel will win by over 5%.

"Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL). Longtime Congressman Shaw has a following here going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale. He remains personally popular but his district is Democrat and becoming more so. State Senate Minority Leader Robert Klein is heavily funded."

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The district gave Presdient Bush 47% in 2000 and 48% in 2004, so it appears to have found its equilibrium. Shaw has a crapload of seniority (he may become Chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee in a few years) and looks out for the interests of his constituents, and there's no reason to believe that he is endangered---the 2002 redistricting that took out the Miami-Dade portion of the district (in which President Bush had gotten only 33% in 2000) bought Shaw at least 10 more years in the House.

"Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL). Bean made national news in 2004 when she ousted a jaded, over-complacent incumbent. She is a top GOP target and will face a tough race against the winner of a crowded priamry."

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Bean is toast. She won a flukish election because Congressman Crane had overstayed his welcome, but in a suburban Chicago district that gave Presdident Bush 56% in both 2000 and 2006 the GOP nominee will win by 53%-47%

[Clintonfatigued]

Actually, this is Stuart Rothenberg's list, not mine.

I think that he should have included Jim Marshall (D-GA) and perhaps Charles Melancon (D-LA).

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

The problem-one of many-I have with Paul is that he's not a Republican.

He's a Libertarian-not in the abstract, philosophical sense, but in the subscribes to "Liberty," votes for Michael Badnarik sense-and yet continues to misrespresent himself to Texas voters.

If people want to vote for the LP then they're perfectly entitled to do so, but I don't think they should be represented by a putative Republican who isn't truly a member of that party.

He's never renounced his membership in the LP.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Vic Snyder (AR-3), far too liberal for his Little Rock seat."

---

Amen. He's probably the third most liberal white Democrat congressman in the South (after Doggett of Austin and Price of Chapel Hill, NC), and his district gave President Bush 51%. The Republican running against him is currently unknown but he has an outstanding name (Andy Mayberry; makes me think of Sheriff Andy Taylor of Mayberry in The Andy Griffith Show), a gorgeous family (especially little Katie, born with spina bifida) a business background, and the right issue positions for the district. See http://www.andymayberryforcongress.com/
This is a race to watch.

"John Salazar (CO-3), brother of liberal Sen. Ken, sitting in a GOP district because of a internecine GOP primary battle in '04 and poor showing of the party overall."

---

President Bush got 55% in the district in 2004, and unless the GOP again nominates a candidate who had pissed off the entire western half of the district due to the water issue it will be a very close race in 2006, with an excellent chance of getting the seat back to the GOP column.

"Allen Boyd (FL-2), now a GOP-leaning panhandle district."

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Boyd has a moderate voting record and cast some conservative votes once in a while, so he'll be hard to dislodge even though President Bush got 54% in 2004. If House Speaker Allen Bense ran against Boyd I think we'd have a good chance, but barring a top-tier candidate Boyd will win handily.

"Jim Marshall (GA-8), whom most reasonable individuals expect to lose former Rep. Mac Collins in a reconfigured heavily GOP district."

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IF the GOP re-redistricting is upheld in court and is used in 2006 (which I don't think will be the case, since the GA case is different from TX in that the TX legislature had not approved new maps after the 2000 Census while the GA legislature already had their chance), then Marshall is meat. But under the current lines, Marshall has a fighting chance against a top-tier candidate and would be favored against a second-tier candidate. What ex-Congressman Mac Collins should do is move to Monroe County just south of his home in Butts County so that he will be living in the district whether or not the new lines are upheld in court---my money is on Mac even if the election is held with the old lines, since President Bush got 55% in the district in 2004 and Governor Perdue ran extremely strong in the district in 2002 and will probably run even stronger in 2006.

"John Barrow (GA-12), expected to face a tight rematch against ex-Rep. Max Burns in a reconfigured GOP-leaning district."

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With the new lines (which removes Barrow's home base of Athens and all of those liberal students and professors), the race will lean slightly to Burns, but if the current lines are used I think that Barrow will win again.

"Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district."

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Yes, hopefully the 4th time will be the charm. With socially liberal GOP candidate Taff going to prison for stealing campaign funds, maybe the RINO wing of the party will support the conservative nominee for once and allow us to finally beat the liberal Moore.

"Ben Chandler (KY-6), sits in a GOP district that he won in a special over a weak GOP candidate."

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True, but he'll win again unless we get a top-tier candidate to run.

"Bill Jefferson (LA-2), yes, I'm putting him on there because with the current demographics of New Orleans and a potential criminal conviction, we could make a play for the seat."

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Unless we can get a black Republican to run and make the run-off, I don't see how we could possibly win.

"Charlie Melancon (LA-3), sits in a GOP district that he won because of a brutal GOP battle. His GOP opponent, Craig Romero, has unified support."

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If Romero has unified support this time, I agree that he has an excellent chance of winning. Melançon is not as socially conservative as he claimed when he ran last time.

"Bennie Thompson (MS-2), a bit iffy, but he faces an ugly primary challenge, and if he emerges, and if our party ponies up the $$, Yvonne Brown could provide a potential upset."

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Lots of ifs there, but I agree we should keep this race in our radar screen.

"Tim Bishop (NY-1), Steve Israel (NY-2), Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), despite erosion of the Long Island GOP, a strong well-funded challenge to any of the 3 could put the seats back in our column where they were prior to the '90s."

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If we can get a good candidate to take on Bishop, we can beat him (President Bush carried the NY-01 in 2004). But unfortunately the other two incumbents appear to be safe for now.

"Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96."

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I agree, but we need a candidate.

"Brad Miller (NC-13), a gerrymandered seat for the 'Rats, but one still carried by Dubya. The GOP should find a decent candidate to take him on."

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Miller is very liberal, far more so than his constituents, but the district is trending RAT and I don't see any top-tier GOP candidates stepping up.

"Earl Pomeroy (ND-At Large), a perennial target in a state that is heavily GOP but hasn't elected one in 26 years."

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This guy we can beat. Hopefully we will have better recruiting than we've had against Senator Conrad.

"Darlene Hooley (OR-5), also a perennial target in a GOP district. Oregon remains overrepresented by Democrats at the federal House level."

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Again, we need a candidate. A pro-abortion nobody like last time won't do the trick.

"John Murtha (PA-12), yes, THAT guy. His district may lean 'Rat, but it ain't of the pinko anti-American kind. Surely SOME well-funded GOP challenger can step up and take this disgusting terrorist-loving pig out of his seat. After all, this seat WAS GOP before he won it."

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The district was drawn to be heavily RAT, but President Bush got 49% in 2004. Murtha must have pissed off a good number of Democrats in the district, but voting out a powerful Appropriations Committee stalwart will not be easy.

"Tim Holden (PA-17), not a nut like Murtha, but a Republican should be occupying this seat."

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If we can't beat him in 2006, we should offer him a chairmanship to switch parties; he's conservative enough to fit in with the GOP caucus.

"John Spratt (SC-5), too liberal for his seat and has escaped strong challengers for a dozen years. No Democrat should still be holding any office in SC but the 6th (and hopefully we'll do something about that in the next 10 years, too). "

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As I've written before, we have a good chance of winning here.

"Stephanie Herseth (SD-At Large), she's cute, but she's too liberal for the state and a Republican belongs here (thanks a lot, Bill Janklow). "

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So who is going to run?

"Lincoln Davis (TN-4), more like Holden of PA, but this Republican district needs to send one (we're overrepresented with 'Rats due to gerrymandering in TN). Van Hilleary should be challenging him. "

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If Van runs, we can get the seat back, if not, forget it.

"Bart Gordon (TN-6), the 'Rats protected him with gerrymandering, but he is a relic in an area that becomes more and more GOP by the day in the suburban counties around Nashville. "

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Another district we could pick up if Van Hilleray runs for it. And President Bush got 60% here in 2004, so any top-tier guy would do.

"Chet Edwards (TX-17), a slick liberal 'Rat who needs to be bounced from this heavily GOP district."

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This could be the year when we finally get rid of Edwards.

"Jim Matheson (UT-2), a Democrat -- in UTAH ? C'mon, guys ! "

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This one should not even be an issue. But we need a candidate.


"Rick Boucher (VA-9), this district should be sending a Republican, and Boucher has been in office nearly a quarter-century, he needs to go."

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Again, it all boils down to recruiting. With a well-known candidate, we should win this district in which President Bush got 60% in 2004.

"Rick Larsen (WA-2), should be a district we can strongly challenge in a margin area with a well-funded candidate. It's been 12 years since we snatched back a seat for the GOP in WA state."

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This one will be tougher going; we may have to wait until post-2010 redistricting.

"Alan Mollohan (WV-1), WV continues to move more and more towards the GOP, and a growing farm team for the party in the legislature spells trouble for long-term incumbents like Mollohan. State Del. Chris Wakim is challenging him this time, the first viable GOP challenger he has faced since his first election in 1982. "

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Mollohan is socially conservative and a good fit for the district, so I'm not holding my breath on this one. Still, it's good that we're not giving him a free ride---it may help us in our race against Byrd.

"Nick Rahall (WV-3), although still historically 'Rat, he has been in for 30 years, and faces the same trouble at the grass roots that Mollohan does. He is likely facing the Cabell County (Huntington) Sheriff and Vietnam War Veteran Kim Wolfe."

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Rahall is a bit more liberal than Mollohan, but his district is less conservative. The only way to beat him is to hit him hard on the War on Terror, where Rahall's pro-Muslim sentiments have gotten him to vote the wrong way many times.

"David Obey (WI-7), in the name of Melvin Laird, this district ought be brought back after 37 years of this despicable turd to the GOP."

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Not until Obey retires. This guy brings home the bacon.

[zbigreddogz]

Agreed.



Actually, I think there are two Georgia D's that I think are gonna bite the dust. I don't know the D's names, but there are two R Congressman (Burns and Collins) are running in new districts. Burns was a one-termer who won 52-48 in a D district in 2002 due to an ethically challenged opponent, and lost 48-52 in 2004, but the map got thrown out in court, and now the district is 20% new, and more conservative. Collins old district vanished with the new map too, and he lost in the Senate primary, so I think there's very, very good chance to pick up one or both of these.

[AuH2ORepublican]

What Clemenza wrote is correct, but I would add that Lazio's CD wasn't as Democrat as Israel's current CD; the incumbency-protection plan adopted by the NY legislature made Israel's CD more Republican and made the 1st (then Grucci, now Bishop) and 3rd (King) CDs more Republican.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Actually, this is Stuart Rothenberg's list, not mine. "

---

Oops, my apologies.

[Zerano]

He's never renounced his membership in the LP

Kinda like how Hamas has never renounced its desire for the destruction of Israel or the use of violence to carry out its objectives, right?

Rep. Paul IS a Republican....unfortuneately, he would never have been elected in the first place if he wasn't, because the 2 major political parties have corrupted our electoral process to incredibly new lows. Rep. Paul is an honorable man, & regardless of political party, he is the only member of Congress who follows his constitutional Oath of Office day in & day out....& THAT is the important thing.

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

But he acquired office by using fundamentally dishonest tactics, and through a manipulative process.

He is Republican in the same sense that Michael Bloomberg is.

When Murray Sabrin realized that his values were incompatible with the LP he left and enrolled in the Republican Party, which was the right thing to do.

He didn't try to take over the New Jersey Libertarian Party and install GOP apparatchiks in every relevant post.

[EternalVigilance]

Placemark for what appears to be a very interesting thread...

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Kinda like how Hamas has never renounced its desire for the destruction of Israel or the use of violence to carry out its objectives, right?"

C'mon, dude, that's a little over-the-top rhetoric. Paul isn't a Conservative, he is a Libertarian, as much as he can be as a sitting Republican.

[AntiGuv]

Hey, I missed your Mollohan post earlier. The reason I dismissed Wakim's fundraising is because he gave $50,000 of it to himself. Now, I don't dismiss a self-funded candidate when he gives himself, say, $1,250,000 like Steven Kagen (D) who's contesting the open Green seat (WI-08), but $50,000 usually won't cut it.

That being said, I see the CQ has moved the seat to Dem Favored, the equivalent of my Likely Dem, so on that combined with the funds I'll put it on the Watch List.

Here's the latest version of the list:

Toss Up

1 (IL-08) Bean
2 (GA-08) Marshall

Lean Democratic

3 (OH-06) Strickland*
4 (TX-17) Edwards
5 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*

Likely Democratic

6 (IA-03) Boswell
7 (LA-03) Melancon
8 (UT-02) Matheson
9 (KS-03) Moore
10 (GA-12) Barrow
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (CO-03) Salazar

Watch List

13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (WV-01) Mollohan
15 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
16 (NY-27) Higgins
17 (OH-13) Brown*
18 (HI-02) Case*
19 (AR-02) Snyder**

If there are any more races you think I should revisit, feel free to let me know!

[AntiGuv]

From CQ: WV 1 - Mollohan Safe No More.

[Non-Sequitur]

I see Kline has a RINO-turned-'Rat apostate challenger. Kline's probably the best statewide officeholder KS has had in years.

Kline won in a close race against an unknown, unfunded Democrat four years ago. He's had a big target on his back since then. He has the same problem other extremely conservative Republicans have in this state, he's running against the Democrats and the moderate Republicans. I honestly don't know what his odds are. His actions to date have solidified his base, but will that be enough?

[Zerano]

I don't know if Rep. Paul is still a member of the LP or not, & I don't care....what matters to me is the fact that he is the only Member of Congress who abides by his constitutional Oath of Office--& he is consistent in doing so.

For example, I heard that he refuses to accept $ for retirement that his fellow Members gladly accept (I can't remember the name of the program, although I know he has called it a "scheme")...the Constitution says that Members can get paid for their services, but once they are out of office they're not providing a service anymore & are therefore not allowed to take taxpayer's $.

From what I've been able to learn about him, he is probably one of the most pro-life Members of Congress as well...& after delivering 4,000 babies, I can understand why.

Who cares if he's a conservative or a libertarian? He's a CONSTITUTIONIST plain & simple...& if he has to lower his standards (IMO) & join the GOP in order to be elected into Office, then more power to him!

His strict constitutionalism is why he's despised so much by the upper echelons of the GOP Establishment I'm sure...they always try to find someone else to run against him come Primary time, don't they? I remember Newt Gingrich coming to Mr. Paul's district to find someone else to unseat him, but apparently his constituents seem to love him because they keep re-electing him time after time.

[HostileTerritory]

The Democrats have no bench in that district. Joe Sulzer is what passes for a good challenger.

[mosquitobite]

Mike Sodrel is IN-9. He defeated the incumbent Baron Hill in 2004 (who "got" the seat in 2000 or 2002 pretty much solely from having the support of Lee Hamilton - 30yr+ rep for IN-9). Hill has raised a lot of money to win back his seat.

I've got at least 5 people here in my office who I'll be hounding to get out and vote for Sodrel to help him keep the seat.