I never say "what will be up 100%". Never have, never will. I have never promised anybody any type of return in my entire career (that is when dealing with investments subject to risk).
What I DO do is advise on the best strategies based on current trends and projected forcasts, with some taking into account historical patterns.
To me, getting clients into small and mid caps in 2000-2001 and interest rate sensitive issues was a no-brainer. Having a high percent (higher than most others advise) in emerging markets and international was a no-brainer also. This has allowed greater than 100% returns, but I would never promise or assure a 100% gain--I just advise based on sound principles and let the rest do its thing.
Likewise, dumping money into a second home as an "investment" two years ago like this member did was not wise. Some areas have maintained good appreciation in the last two years, but two years ago it was clear that the factors that caused real estate to surge were getting stale and subject to reversal.
The main point I would stress is that most people do not know all the complexities of any investment decision. When 911 occurred, "most" stocks tanked and investors froze. However, few had the insight to gather their thoughts and seek out companies that would PROFIT from 911, e.g., defense stocks, interest sensitive, security, etc. When everybody hears about real estate soaring, many want to jump in and "flip houses" and never spend a second studying the impact of the dollar versus the Euro and what trends are occurring there (very important in real estate in the Orlando area. e.g., since Europeans LOVE Orlando), interest rate trends and projections, supply trends in their local market, materials cost and temporary aberrations (like the 2004 hurricanes and Katrina/Rita in 2005) and how that affects real estate, . . .
People not wise in investing usually take a simple approach and don't have a clue about the complex nature of investing. They also often avoid dealing with professionals thinking they can do it alone. Often, trying to save 50 bucks costs them 50 thousand.
I'm taking note of your advice to have professionals help with investing, which I do, since, while I am not totally ignorant, my personal confidence level is not up to me making such decisions on my own. However, I'm considering changing professionals. Have you any advice on how to select professional investment advisors?