Problem. There is nowhere for traditional conservatives to go. 2008 will be an historic year for the GOP. If they choose the wrong candidate to run for Prez, they'll find mainstream conservatives like you and me, bolting the GOP for better conservative opportunties. Frankly, I'd say the GOP conservative base is closer to 50%. Maybe higher. With about 20% coming from religious conservatives.
You may well be right about that. I stick with that 30%+ number because it seems to be the conventional wisdom, i.e., the number usually cited. I have wondered whether it might not be higher.