[x]

That's what I would have thought, but it takes time to build up name recognition, and a known name can do a lot to win over the habitual nonvoters, so Clinton probably will do better in the primaries than a Vilsack or Feingold or Bayh will. Indeed, she'd probably do better in the general election, unless one of these guys has real charisma. But aren't all these Democrats counting on the same things that made the difference for Bill Clinton: an economic downturn and a third party challenger?

[Torie]

Primaries are odd animals. Anything can happen. There is retail politics in Iowa and NH, and those places can put someone on the map with the right stuff. There are few politicians these days I think who have the right stuff. I thought Clinton did, and predicted his nomination early. Ditto with Carter. I don't think Warner quite has it. He is too dull and pedantic. Bayh is a zero. So Hillary might get it by default, but to handicap, one must parse the traction of the field, when exposed to prime time.