Replies

To LWalk18 -- Truthsearcher pointed out your error and came back to my number: more than one in three.

To Heyworth -- You tell me "your math is off," but my math is correct. You say that only 6% of those in the running-away years run away -- i.e., 1.6M/(7*4M). However, that's 6% each year for 7 years, which results in 42% of them (using your numbers) running away at some time during those years. Still more than one in three.

To Ohioan from Florida: You call me a liar (specifically, "Look, I understand about lying with statistics just fine. You're doing it, too"). I will overlook the insult. However, I'm neither lying nor mathematically challenged. You make the same error as Heyworth. Even after your correction to one in thirty each year, you have to multiply by the number of years -- 11 -- which gives you 11 in 30, or more than one in three, as I said.

Although Truthsearcher said it well, let me try twice more:

If the number of babies born each year (ignoring immigrants) is between 4 and 4.5 million (say 4.25 million for convenience), then, assuming (correctly) a low mortality rate, the number of 1-year-olds is about 4.25 million, etc., up to 18-year-olds. That's 76.5 million. Each year 1.6 million (allegedly) run away, so over the 18-year period, that's 28.8 million. 28.8M/76.5M = 37.6%, or more than one in three.

Another way to look at it: the numerator of the fraction is a rate: "1.6 million per year", and the denominator is also a rate: "4.25 million per year." Dividing both the numerator and denominator by "1M per year" leaves the pure number (not a rate, but a pure number) of .376 = more than one in three.

I didn't mean to insult you, but was rather trying to make a point. You do recall that I said, "In other words, anyone can make the *statistic* say whatever they want it to, including you and me." There was no need to take offense.

My point is, let me be clear, anyone can make statistics say anything they want it to say. Anyone includes both of us, the government, or ABC as well.

I see this whole thing as something to be aware of if you aren't already. No agenda. Be cautious, and take precautions. Do you find something wrong with that? I hope not, but I know some people will.