Clinton's tax hike didn't pass until August 1993, but we knew it was coming.
February 15, 1993 : Less than one month after Inauguration, Clinton backtracked from his campaign promise to lower taxes for the middle class. From the oval office Clinton said "I had hoped to invest in your future by creating jobs, expanding education, reforming health care and reducing the debt without asking more of you ... but I can't."
I don't suppose you think this knowledge could have reduced growth before August 1993?
We went from +4.2, +3.9, +4.0, +4.5 in 1992 to +0.5, +2.0, +2.1, +5.5 in 1993. I guess the drop from +4.5 to +0.5 happens all the time at that point in a recovery? Nothing to do with anticipated hikes? And you know why the 4Q93 growth was so high, don't you?
There was a drop in GDP in 4Q02 to 0.2%, 5 quarters into the recovery. The drop to 0.5% occurred 8 quarters in. I guess the 4Q02 drop was in anticipation of the tax cut then?