Posted on 02/03/2006 5:34:59 AM PST by A. Pole
KIEV - The last time The Times saw Viktor Yanukovych, the burly former convict and then Prime Minister of Ukraine looked like a broken man. His victory in a presidential election had just been overturned after a fortnight of massive protests centred on Kiev, the Ukrainian capital.
Viktor Yushchenko, who led the Orange Revolution and went on to win the election re-run, was being hailed around the world as a democratic hero who had wrenched the country of 47 million people out of Russia’s stifling embrace. Mr Yanukovych was vilified as a Kremlin stooge.
Just over a year later, however, Mr Yanukovych had a defiant gleam in his eye as he met The Times in his newly refurbished office in the centre of Kiev.
And with good reason. He is not just back at the forefront of Ukrainian politics: he is on the verge of snatching back power from under the noses of the Western governments that so enthusiastically embraced the Orange Revolution.
“It is high time to end incompetence,” he says in a slick new campaign advertisement. “Together we will win for the sake of Ukraine.”
His Party of the Regions, which advocates closer ties with Russia, is leading all opinion polls before parliamentary elections on March 26. His personal ratings also outstrip those of his rivals. And since Parliament, rather than the President, chooses the Prime Minister under constitutional reforms introduced on January 1, he is now a front-runner to assume what will be the nation’s most powerful post.
The West may have won the geopolitical battle over Ukraine in 2004. But, with less than two months until the elections, analysts say, it appears to be losing the war.
“In 2005 this country went from one crisis to another,” Mr Yanukovych, 56, told The Times.
“People got used to worrying all the time about what’s going to happen tomorrow. People are tired of this instability. All they see from this Government is populism and unprofessionalism.”
The fault lies principally with the business leaders who bankrolled the Orange Revolution, analysts say.
Mr Yushchenko took power promising an end to the corruption, human rights abuses and economic bungling that had plagued Ukraine under his predecessor, Leonid Kuchma.
He pledged to lead Ukraine into the EU and Nato, tearing it out of Russia’s strategic orbit for good. But within a few months infighting and allegations of corruption tore his team apart and in September he sacked the Government of his revolutionary partner, Yuliya Tymoshenko.
“The fundamental mistake was a lack of coherent political strategy,” said Yuri Yakymenko, a political analyst at the Razumkov Centre in Ukraine. “Right from the start they were competing for position in the parliamentary elections.”
The problems were not just internal, however. Many Ukrainians feel they did not receive the support they had anticipated from the West. The EU quickly poured cold water on Mr Yushchenko’s promises to join the body and instead awarded Ukraine the nebulous prize of “market economy status” last year. “If there had been a definite signal on EU membership it would have been better for Yushchenko,” Mr Yakymenko said .
President Putin said this week that the United States had given Ukraine just $174 million (£98 million) in aid last year, compared with between $3 billion and $5 billion that Kiev had received in subsidies from Moscow.
Ukraine says it hopes to join Nato by 2008 but Western diplomats say that is unrealistic given popular opposition to the idea and the complexity of integrating technical standards. Russia, meanwhile, has been flexing its economic muscles to remind Ukrainians of their continued dependence on their former imperial and Soviet masters.
It has studiously avoided backing any individual politician since its explicit support for Mr Yanukovych’s presidential campaign backfired so badly. But it severely undermined Mr Yushchenko when it cut off Ukraine’s gas supplies on New Year’s Day in a pricing dispute widely seen as punishment for the Orange Revolution. Russia also banned imports of Ukrainian meat and dairy products last month.
The net result is that Mr Yushchenko is losing support in western and central Ukraine, his traditional strongholds, while Mr Yanukovych is consolidating his in the south and east. Yuri Yekhanurov, Mr Yushchenko’s Prime Minister, predicted last week that their Our Ukraine party would triumph in the elections and form a coalition government. The question is with whom.
The latest polls give the Party of the Regions 25 per cent of the vote, Our Ukraine 15 per cent and Mrs Tymoshenko’s bloc 12 per cent. Some analysts predict that Mr Yushchenko will resolve his differences with Mrs Tymoshenko to form a new Orange coalition. If that fails, he could have to link up with the Party of the Regions, or face an opposition coalition led by Mr Yanukovych. Either of the latter would entail significant changes, especially on foreign and defence policy.
Mr Yanukovych has polished his image in the past year with the help of an American PR consultant, who has helped to gloss over his convictions for robbery and assault in 1969 and 1970, and his alleged links to organised crime.
He now says that he supports Ukraine joining the EU — a change of tune since 2004. He rants less about how Western agents orchestrated the Orange Revolution or supplied protesters, as his wife once claimed, with psychotropic oranges and felt boots. But he still strongly opposes Ukraine joining Nato. He advocates making Russian an official language, and supports the creation of an economic bloc with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
“Ukraine should be a bridge between the EU and Russia,” he says. “This Government has only driven us apart from Russia, while failing to bring us closer to Europe.”
Orange bump
ok, now i get it...if we spend more than 1 billion on any country we can hope that the citizens will want total democracy...
But only 197 million dollars will make Ukranian citizens run to Moscow for more?...oh
How quickly they forget the mess they were in when Mother Russia was running things there...what was that, bout 1 year ago now?
Seems like democracy on Ukraine is working. Parties and leaders in power change through the election process. Unless by "total democracy" you mean "correct" results.
The real question is "why would you want a bridge to Russia or the EU?" Neither is, as we say down on the farm, a "prize hog"...
by total democracy i mean that the people are the Government...
I guess i haven't really encountered true democracy here either...i'll shut up now
Instead of democracy, west played economy card in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine etc. We,, people can`t eat democracy and economy got eorsten, sto if West gives no money, they will turn East.
Nefore Milosevic lost elections in 2000. than-oposition spread word of "6 BILLION" Dollars waiting just to Milosevic to go away.
Man, that was stupid, but it worked. and, now, there is no 6 Billion Dollars, and people wants changes.
Oh, yes, and political pushing continues, threatening of stealing Kosovo and giving it to Islamofascists, that all makes things worstes possible for pro-western politicians.
If that continues, They downfall on elections is secured, democratic coalition in Parliament gao 14% support.
So what kind of PAYBACK can we the US expect for pulling the plug on all those energy deals Russia had with Saddam?
The US payback can be the same plans that the Russians and their current communist leaders such as the Putin and his KGB cohorts exerted by starving millions of Ukrainians when they resisted their plans.
Putin has similar plans for both Ukraine and the US.
Re: see Iran.
Nothing changes except the Russian vampire has come out of the dark.
Are you saying that Putin and his cohorts will be starving Americans?
ping
That was a good laugh!
Let's see Putin and his KGB pals have robbed the Russian people blind, are supporting America's enemies in Iran militarily, building military support in Syria, attempted to kill a democratically leader in Ukraine, spent millions supporting a thug to run the country and have threatened all of Western Europe in a obvious intimidation tactic on Ukraine's gas deliveries.
But the most upsetting thing is giving a giant TV?
Yup, I forgot about that important international issue. Let's stop the threat of giving away TVs.
How is your "Otpor" doing now? Does it have any public support?
Yushchenko (15%) + Tymoshenko (12%) > Yanukovich (25%)
So even if we say that this poll is accurate they have an advantage. Mathematic will always win with media “interpretation” of results.
Winner takes all.
"Otpor" tried to go on elections, but failed.
They merged with Democratic party of president Tadic, and joined Socialyst International.
Misserable end.
Why post communist countries in the west are a lot more richer than those from the east? You cannot blame the west because your politicians are corrupt, you need to elect others.
Appears that "OIL" will be the weapon of choice against US, and even appears with all these terrorists uprisings, might be promoted with the idea to pull a "Reagan" on US.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.