[Billthedrill]

Everyone's eye is on Iran at the moment and North Korea seems to have dropped from the public consciousness. They aren't a separate problem to China. Iran presents a potential threat that the Chinese haven't faced since the 1930's - outside pressure that can hurt their economy. Should the Straits of Hormuz be closed there will be factories that come to a halt in China. Not good to be that vulnerable.

North Korea might help them in that regard. Its troublemaking potential through its nuclear programs is being eclipsed by Iran and it really doesn't have much else to offer. But any oil found off Korea will take years to exploit, and Iran is pounding the drum now.

So when does the publicity-starved Kim get impatient and pop off a nuke of his own, if he even really has one? And what happens when he does? This could get interesting very fast.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #3

In my opinion, N. Korea could pop off a nuke when U.S. gets to make prohibitively expensive the price of China propping up N. Korea. However, China could then turn against N. Korea. N. Korean nuke test could do as much damage to Chinese economy as blocked oil supply from Mid-East, because Korean Peninsula would suddenly turn into an imminent war zone. In the recent photos, Kim Jong-il looks haggard. The U.S. pressure has taken the toll.

As you said, Iran and N. Korean problem are not separate. Both countries coordinate their moves to stretch out U.S. resources. If one goes down, the other could follow in a short order. Year 2006 would be an interesting time.