I would say you might be right...but I think Steelers fans might be able to tip the balance.
I think you're greatly overestimating the degree of support Lynn Swann will get from Steelers fans. Most of the ones I know regard him as a traitor for running as a Republican, which goes against the blue collar team roots, blah blah blah whatever.
Not that there are any better candidates, but Swann is a neophyte who is going to get chewed up and spit out by Fast Eddie, who is one of the best, dirtiest political campaigners in America. Swann has never had a real job where people do not defer to him in his life; first he was a football player, then a football commentator, then he served on softee honorary committees. He is in for a rude awakening when Rendell takes the gloves off. I am sadly resigned to four more years of watching Rendell stuff his fat yob with cheesesteaks.