I think you made some good observations about Hamas, and pointed out some very plausible explanations that at least desrve debate. I think it's vital to consider all of the "Connections" so to speak, that surround large world events like the election of Hamas, in order to understand them fully.
That said, your entire message is lost by trying to tie this all to Secretary Rice. I'm being charitable by merely calling it a stretch...
I am not tying "all these events" to Condi.
I am pointing out that "all these events", their history, their factual nature and the situation on the ground, in the Palestinian territories, that they help define, should have left no thorougly knowledgeable observer clueless, and needing an investigation, as to how they did not forsee the strength of Hamas. The facts were there, before the elections. They - the divas at the State Department - ignored them, dismissed them, played them down and did what they have done for forty years - built up the mythic proportions of Arafat and his organization.
Condi has changed nothing at the State Department.