"You never know, Justice Alito may not vote they way we think in order to establish himself a free thinker."
It really depends on how Catholic he really is and how closely he holds his religion. Catholics are BOUND to oppose abortion, by the Pope, by their faith. It's not an optional thing. There has been some wiggle room for politicians, some, but that wiggle room has been sharply tightened over the past several years, with denials of communion, etc.
Now, all of those politicians who are pro-choice, the Kerry's of the world, are very much cafeteria Catholics, Catholics in Name Only.
When you get serious, committed Catholics - like Roberts, like Alito - you are dealing with men who will literally lapse into apostasy of their faith if they do not stand against abortion.
There is not the slightest degree of doubt in my mind about how either Alito or Roberts will vote: both are very devout Catholics.
Thomas and Scalia, I don't know. Their religion did not figure as prominently in their vetting as Alito's and Robert's did.
An old accusation about Catholics in America is that they are not completely independent, that a foreign prince can dictate to them. For JFK, that wasn't true: he did what he wanted and only went through the pretenses of being Catholic, really. But for devout practicing Catholics, there actually IS truth in the charge: devout, practicing Catholics are not free agents. And there is no issue on which they are less free than abortion. More than any other issue, papal encyclical and curial rulings have come down thickly over the past two decades. There's no wiggle room.
The lukewarm don't care. But the devout are bound, and there is no "But I'm a public servant" exception to the demands of God.
I was worried about Kennedy, but after jwalsh forwarded the Stenberg case, I am deeply gratified that Kennedy seems to be (re)gaining (his moral) sense in his old age.