He lost me here. Anyone who thinks the mullahs wouldn't take a cue from China c. Tianamen Square and start summarily hanging truck drivers and students for sedition is giving the mullahs a conscience they simply don't have.
I think we have to look at the Hitlerian model: Iran, like Germany is suffering from a terrible economy. Unemployment is extremeley high. Oil discovery in Iran has most likely peaked at this point. And with the baby boom that occured after the revolution, the "fighting age" population is something in the range of 50% IIRC. That's a lot of disaffected youth, who, responding to Ahmadi's nationalistic maneuvers will probably cede to patriotism before they try to overthrow the government, which probably would have happened by now, given the internal conditions there. It hasn't happened, and if the model holds true, Ahmadi's conferences/speeches on the Holocaust will become his "Mein Kampf", inspiring the Persian street to throw off the yoke of "Rome", as it were, and demand their "nucler rights"...
We may spark some instability, but a revolution is a pipe dream at this point. I'm not saying it's impossible, just highly unlikely. Ahmadi really has these people believing that they are destined to be the jewel of the Middle East, much like Hitler convinced otherwise peaceable Germans that their destiny was to become a master race.
Truly historic crossroads we've come to. Remember this time, whatever the outcome.
Woops. Spellcheck is my friend...