[A. Pole]

If you're right -- you can make a ton of money.

So what does it mean that the economical experts are not the richest men on the earth? Does it mean that they are wrong? Or maybe they are not "rational"?

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

Good retort.

I said in my # 27 that the econometric models are as unreliable as weather or climate models. Look at Sarastro's # 22 -- he says why better than me.

I said that the modeling is here to stay -- not that I necessarily liked it. When we get 1,000 or 1,000,000 times more computer power, maybe the problems won't be as intractable. You mentioned G.I.G.O. -- I don't disagree -- but, maybe the new research will reduce the G.I. part of that, and make the models better.

Economists aren't rich, cobblers have no shoes. Same goes for most scientists, etc. -- entrepreneurs have something extra.

[Young Scholar]

So what does it mean that the economical experts are not the richest men on the earth? Does it mean that they are wrong? Or maybe they are not "rational"?

Some of them are--Warren Buffett, George Soros, and others are certainly experts at understanding the market. Many of the top commodities, bond, and equity traders make millions of dollars a year. Others, such as Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, have made their fortunes by providing a product or service superior to market alternatives, on the assumption that many people would rationally chose theirs over inferior competition. And many people did.