The difference is Mannix isnt liked at all in Portland where he will need to get around 35% of the vote to have a chance, and he hasnt and he never will. The other thing is Atkinson has the looks (sad to say but it helps), his only draw back is his name but if he carries southern Oregon in the primary he probably wins the nomination. If Atkinson wins the republican nomination IMO hes almost locked to be governor.
Who is to say he can't ? Kulongoski is an almost certain bet that he won't get as many votes as he did the last time. If Mannix gets virtually the same as what he got last time, he wins.