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I think we are in the abundance phase. Of course one must assume that this model applies to us. Civilizations have failed or shrunk (in power) through historical events. The British Empire did not fall, it changed because colonialism became a thing of the past. The UK is still a viable force in the world, but with diminished power compared to its past power. France was very powerful under Napoleon, but took on the world and as a result France was no longer the dominant power. Germany under the NAZIs was very powerful as was the Soviet Union largely because both states were military dictatorships.

The USA has the requisite courage and abundance to sustain its power for quite some time, or system of free enterprise and liberty can sustain a vitality for some time. However, the threat to us if that we stop believing in ourselves.

The Roman Civilization lasted over a thousand years, and in the form of the Byzantine Empire over two thousand years until 1453. Rome changed from a city state with a Republic to an Empire and was destroyed for a variety of reasons. The pressure of Barbarian invasions coupled with weak leadership in the Fifth Century that overtaxed the population and fostered few of the virtues of the original Roman Civilization. Romans were Christians by then and ironically, as Gibbon points out Monasticism contributed to this fall.
In conclusion, I opine that civilizations do evolve over the years, and depending on the history at that time, they thrive or fall, however, there are internal factors that are important to the viability of a country. Roman values upheld Military virtues. The military was well organized and held an high place in society. Gibbon called it civic virtue.