Posted on 01/28/2006 1:29:23 PM PST by Termite_Commander
YEARS ago when I first started studying the avian influenza virus H5N1, it seemed highly unlikely that it would ever develop into pandemic status. I believed it might eventually trigger a conventional bout of flu, but certainly nothing to the degree of its H1N1 ancestor, the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50 to 100 million people.
I have followed this virus in its inexorable march towards a pandemic, seen how it kept surprising the experts by picking up more and more human-infectious traits, until now there is virtually no doubt that there will be a worldwide avian flu pandemic and that H5N1 will be responsible for it.
We have all heard the projections from avian influenza experts like Dr Michael Osterholm that in a single flu season as many as 360 million people could die. That figure is unimaginable. It's the total number of dead from the Boxing Day Tsunami every two hours, or a fully loaded 747 crashing every 13 seconds, around the clock for months on end. Three million dead in the UK alone or the equivalent of six Edinburghs.
The global integrated economy cannot survive a pandemic of this magnitude. Absenteeism rates of upwards of 75 per cent caused by illness and panic would cripple food distribution, utility access and virtually all other commerce. The bleak vision of surviving on canned food and bottled water in cold, dark homes, fearful of stepping outdoors for months on end, could happen right here in Scotland and around the world.
Do not make the error of assuming this cannot happen here. Migratory birds from Western China brought H5N1 to Turkey in early October where it lay undetected until people started dying a couple of weeks ago. Those migratory patterns continue into North Africa and Western Europe. When will H5N1 arrive in Scotland? Judging by the Turkish model, it may already be here. Let's not even consider what can happen when an infected individual arrives at Edinburgh Airport.
The 1918 pandemic started in an Army barracks in Kansas. Within one week the virus was present in all 48 contiguous United States in an era where the only modes of transport were trains and horses. The spread of this virus in the jet age is unimaginable. There likely would not be a corner of the Earth where this modern plague would not be present within weeks, maybe days.
The virus needs to pick up another trait or two to become as easily transmitted between humans as a common cold. That could happen at any time or it may already have begun.
Developing a vaccine against H5N1 is like targeting a clay pigeon. You have to shoot ahead of the target to allow the bullet and clay to intersect. Unfortunately H5N1 is a pigeon that does random, sudden 90 degree turns. It is the ultimate moving target. The time to develop and manufacture a global vaccine is six to eight months. By that time, the avian flu virus will likely have mutated into a form that is immune to the vaccine.
Current flu vaccines have no effect on H5N1, and although it is recommended that everyone be vaccinated, we should be clear in the knowledge that should a pandemic start, there is no protection from current vaccines or certainly from antiviral drugs. The antivirals of choice right now are Roche's Tamiflu and Glaxo's Relenza. The UK has ordered more than £200 million of Tamiflu, believing that it could help fend off the pandemic. Unfortunately, Tamiflu is fairly useless as an avian flu pandemic fighter.
In a recent Asian study Tamiflu was proven as ineffective as sugar pills against some H5N1 strains. The best use for these drugs is as a preventative, taking at least two doses per day from the moment the first virus arrives in your area and throughout all the months of the flu wave.
To provide everyone in the world with this albeit minor preventative measure would require, in a conservative calculation, 650 billion pills or the equivalent to the total weight of the Queen Elizabeth II fully loaded with passengers and cargo just in pure Tamiflu! All we have to do is write a cheque to Roche for one trillion pounds. And it still wouldn't stop the pandemic.
Thorough hygiene and other common-sense precautions are the only ways to blunt the impact of this pandemic. Raw poultry must be considered as a biohazard. Surfaces and clothing must be disinfected with bleach. It's time to rediscover the "disinfect everything" policy of the NHS matrons of the 1950s.
H5N1 could surprise us all and evolve into a squirrel or koala virus, sparing humanity. However, the chances of that occurring are next to zero. The world is fully unprepared. The onus must shift from wasting billions on "magic bullet" drugs that don't work to preparation and survivability.
Yes, I agree with you about the writer's style.
It may be he's trying to be blunt and alarmist in hopes it will catch people's attention. Of course, that might just turn other people off.
Or maybe he just enjoys human suffering...
Who knows?
No sh~t Sherlock. The attitude doesnt make you look smarter. My question was reasonable.
"It would be virtually impossible for H5N1, the deadliest influenza strain ever seen, to mutate into a highly benign strain."
AFAIK, no one can predict the results of a mutation that makes human transmission easy. For all we know, we have little immunities to a virus like this because it isnt easily transmitted. If weve never been exposed, weve never had to evolve past it. And whatever mutation would make it more contagious would make it look like something that our immune systems are prepared for. Thats of course just a wild guess, but AFAIK sos the claim that the new mutated form of the virus would be deadly.
"If we're all a bunch of panic-mongering fools, and the warnings are utter nonsense, why do you trouble yourself coming in to shoot them all down? Since we're kooks, don't waste your time on us. "
Youre right, how dare I suggest that this thing might not mutate into something deadly and that there are social, political and psychological reasons pumping up our concern. What a troll I am be for intruding on your thread. Using your reasoning, maybe you shouldnt waste your time on me. Maybe Ill be intimidated by your condescending attitude and stop suggesting such things.
Someone freepmailed me asking about the recent study on elderberries and bird flu. Here's a link in case anyon else is interested:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1565907/posts
Study shows Israeli elderberry extract effective against avian flu
BTW, I admire your politeness in the face of rudeness.
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Thanks for the warnings. I'll go hide under my bed where it's safe.
Although Old Age might still be a problem...
And starvation.
TC according to Dr. Edwin Kilbourne it is likely we already have some resistance:
The fear "is very much overdone, in my opinion," said Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor of immunology at New York Medical College, who has treated flu patients since the 1957 pandemic and has studied the 1918 flu. The bird flu, he said, is distantly related to earlier flus, and humans have already been exposed to them, providing some resistance.
Dr. Kilbourne and other experts also noted that when viruses become more transmissible, they almost always become less lethal. Viruses that let their hosts stay alive and pass the disease on to others, he explained, have a better chance of spreading than do strains that kill off their hosts quickly.
Moreover, he said, while much has been made of comparisons between the current avian flu and the 1918 strain, the factors that helped increase the flu's virulence in 1918 - the crowding together of millions of World War I troops in ships, barracks, trenches and hospitals - generally do not exist today for humans.
Dr. Kilbourne emphasized that medical care had improved greatly since 1918. Although some flu victims then turned blue overnight and drowned from blood, with fluid leaking into their lungs, many more died of what are now believed to be bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.
Although the death toll from that flu was high, the actual death rate was less than 5 percent.
In addition, more people now live in cities, where they have probably caught more flus, giving them immunity to later ones. "In 1918, you had a lot of farm boys getting their first contact with city folks who'd had these things," Dr. Kilbourne said.
No recognized authority on H5N1 considers that living people have any useful resistance to H5N1, except possibly for recent survivors.
There is a difference of opinion out there as to whether people born in 1918 or before and still alive might still have resistance to that flu.
The good immunology professor apparently feels that this new flu is stealing some of his thunder (and research dollars?), and so diminishes it.
Dr. Kilbourne and other experts also noted that when viruses become more transmissible, they almost always become less lethal.
Yes, little consolation to the 5 or 6% who still die.
the crowding together of millions of World War I troops in ships, barracks, trenches and hospitals - generally do not exist today for humans.
That's correct -- conditions today include much more densely crowded conditions in large western cities, especially office buildings and public transportation and sports stadiums and other venues. Maybe troops aren't more crowded, but so what? Then again, an aircraft carrier seems like a pretty optimal breeding laboratory (for the bug!) and is mobile as well.
many more died of what are now believed to be bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.
They can be treated successfully in 6 - 8 hours? Maybe if they are already hooked up to an IV. What if there are a thousand patients ahead of you? What if the first 15 patients who arrive at the hospital get the only available ventilators? (they would).
Although the death toll from that flu was high, the actual death rate was less than 5 percent.
I don't consider loss of 5% of an entire population to be insignificant.
What infinitesimal percent of the U.S. population was lost on 9/11 and how much of a stir did that cause?
Good reply. Fair enough.
Having been "densely crowded" on a training ship, I can speak from experience that there are NO Western cities crowded in such a manner today.
"No recognized authority on H5N1 considers that living people have any useful resistance to H5N1, except possibly for recent survivors."
Judith Anne posted (or freepmailed me, can't remember which) a recipe she uses to make an elderberry tonic with fresh berries. I bought dried berries and adjusted the recipe ("wung it") and made my own. We've been taking it and so far this winter - no appreciable sickness. It's reputed to be a good preventive as well as shorten the length of some viral illnesses.
If the bird flu becomes as easily transmissable as regular garden variety flus, it won't need barracks or trenches for people to catch it, nor filthy conditions. People catch flu just fine every year as it is. No need to squat 2 inches from someone in filth to catch flu. Just breathe in what they breathed out in a store, or touch a doorknob or pen someone touched, and then one's face.
Hi, I worded that unclearly; my mistake.
This is a recent thread on harvesting elderberry and preparing for tincture. Many other threads on the subject - use search.
You can even get involved in the "Sambucol-Wars" if you want -- is it a good thing or a bad thing to boost/suppress the immune system before/during the avian flu/cytokine storm?
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=35281&highlight=elderberry
That's just rose-colored speculation, right? In any event, it hasn't much mitigated the effect on those thus far infected.
OK. Now you've done it! I won't be able to get off *this* website for days! Holy Moley, there's a lot of information! What fun!
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