Posted on 01/28/2006 9:28:18 AM PST by Willie Green
Innovation increases productivity for electronic goods at a very rapid pace, and can even make up for raw materials and labor cost increases (if they made DVD players now the same way they made them just 3 years ago, I would expect them to be MORE expensive now than they would be 3 years ago).
This isn't quite so true for non-electronic goods.
For this reason, I do not believe that consumer electronics prices are a good measure of the economic effect of various polices. What they are a good measure of is just how fast technology is advancing.
They are one of the measures.
They are the one measure used when anyone would like a product whose price they can pretty much count on to continue dropping to try to make a point.
I'll go right out on a limb and say that by 2015 DVD players will not only be cheaper, they'll have more functionality :)
I'll go farther out on a limb and say any existing DVD players in the USA will be displayed prominently on a shelf in the average consumer's basement along with his Atari 2600 and his Sony Betamax.
>>>"Just another excuse to bring in Mexican drivers. (who you don't want to share the road with)."
Any one who has ridden in a Volkswagon taxi going 50 mph around one of the circles in Mexico City knows how curteous and safe Mexican drivers are. Their clean streets and non-polluting vehicles are a standard that we should perhaps follow here. Particularly noteworthy are the streets and highway during the evenings. And, of course, the best police in the world are south of the border in Mexico. No fairer police, court and penal system can be found. Inviting the curteous, non-polluting trucks and drivers into the US would be a most enlightening experience. Why not just let them drive across the borders with no inspections.
Hoppy
I suspect that most of the bargain basement DVD players being sold today won't last quite as long as the Atari 2600 and the Betamax VCRs. The Atari 2600 will likely run just fine even today. The Betamax VCR might need new belts but once those are replaced it'll run fine too.
One of the current dirty little secrets about cheap electronics is that they're very likely have capacitor problems. http://www.badcaps.net for more info should you want it. The site mainly talks about motherboards but I saw bad capacitors in a Cyberhome DVD player that was only 3 years old and had seen very little use during that time.
Apologies my point was too vague.
I am saying by 2015 DVDs will be passe tech like 2600s and Betamaxes.
Most likely.
I would, of course, expect whatever replaces the DVD player by 2015 to be capable of playing today's DVD discs.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.