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Mexico leftist holds 6-point presidential poll lead
Reuters ^ | 1/26/05 | Greg Brosnan

Posted on 01/28/2006 6:53:57 AM PST by Dane

Mexico leftist holds 6-point presidential poll lead Thu Jan 26, 2006 11:01 AM ET

(Recasts; adds details, background)

By Greg Brosnan

MEXICO CITY, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Mexican leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's lead over his nearest rival has been halved to six points since November, according to poll results released on Thursday.

The survey by daily newspaper El Universal gave Lopez Obrador, the former mayor of Mexico City, 33 percent support, with Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party in second place with 27 percent.

In its last poll in November, El Universal had Lopez Obrador with 34 percent, 12 points ahead of Calderon.

Three polls last week also gave Lopez Obrador a lead of between 6 and 8 points over Calderon. Surveys from different pollsters had differed wildly, but are now converging.

In the new El Universal poll, Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party was in third place with 20 percent, up from 18 percent in November. The election is set for July 2.

El Universal said that out of those polled who were likely to vote, 40 percent said they would support Lopez Obrador, 33 percent preferred Calderon and 26 percent picked Madrazo.

The El Universal poll of 1,000 people between Jan. 20 and Jan. 23 had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.

Lopez Obrador, who has promised heavy spending to help Mexico's poor, has recovered in opinion polls since his double-digit lead shrank late last year after he stepped down as mayor of Mexico City.

Lopez Obrador launched his own daily morning television show last week to win back the media limelight after falling out of the public eye during a low profile tour of Mexico's towns and villages.

Calderon, the least known of the candidates, challenged his rivals to a televised debate earlier this week to raise his profile and overcome a weak party structure


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Mexico; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: calderon; leftists; madrazo; mexicanelection; mexicanelections; obrador
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Seems that things are tightening up a little bit. Hopefully this thread won't degenerate into a knee jerk Mexican bash.

Mexico is a country with a ton of potential.

1 posted on 01/28/2006 6:53:59 AM PST by Dane
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As I understand it, most right wingers is hoping the Mexican Left wing president will win. The current right wing Mexican President is a disgrace


2 posted on 01/28/2006 6:59:10 AM PST by 4rcane
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To: Dane

An Obrador win will be like the Hamas win...forcing the light on what has been swept under the rug by multilateralist relativist diplomats. Hard to put a smiley face on either PRD or Hamas. Neither makes any effort to pretend to be other than what they really are.


3 posted on 01/28/2006 7:01:05 AM PST by peyton randolph (As long is it does me no harm, I don't care if one worships Elmer Fudd.)
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To: Dane

He's not a "leftist." He's a commie.


4 posted on 01/28/2006 7:05:11 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Dane
Mexico is a country with a ton of potential.

And a very long history of political corruption at the highest levels......

5 posted on 01/28/2006 7:07:51 AM PST by Thermalseeker
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To: Thermalseeker
And a very long history of political corruption at the highest levels......

There is less difference between Mexico's PRI and PAN than between RINOS and moderate DIMS in the U.S.

If PRD wins, I'll be surprised if Obrador doesn't take a bullet unless he buys into the system...i.e. superficial reforms with anti-American rhetoric while preserving the oligarchy.

6 posted on 01/28/2006 7:12:31 AM PST by peyton randolph (As long is it does me no harm, I don't care if one worships Elmer Fudd.)
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To: Dane

Full of potential, yet full of corruption. They need to choose which path they will follow. Electing a Hugo Chavez wannabee is going to make things go from bad to worse.


7 posted on 01/28/2006 7:16:41 AM PST by pissant
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To: peyton randolph
Do you have any knowledge of the Mexican legislative system, I beleive it is still controlled by the PRI.

Also does the Mexican President have broad executive powers?

8 posted on 01/28/2006 7:17:43 AM PST by Dane ( anyone who believes hillary would do something to stop illegal immigration is believing gibberish)
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To: Dane

Don't we want a lefty to win in Mexico? This type of guy might find a way to tax the $hit out of his own citizens and pay for healthcare and other stuff his fellow countrymen cannot seem to find at the moment. I am all for him winning. And if he succeeds, maybe some of the illegals will decide their former dump of a country (sorry to those offended, but they are leaving it in droves) isn't so bad after all. I say vote lefty in Mexico....it might help!


9 posted on 01/28/2006 7:25:28 AM PST by irish guard
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To: Dane
The Mexican legislature is bicameral. PRI has a plurality in both chambers...but not a majority. PAN has the second largest amount of representatives in each chamber. PRD is a distant third but that will likely change if Obrador wins the presidency.

The Mexican president has powers comparable to the U.S. President with one important exception. The Mexican presidency is limited to one term of 6 years. Fox is a very lame duck right now. With the exception of the 2000 election, PRI has controlled the presidency in Mexico since the 1910 revolution. However, the players in both PAN and PRI are to be found from the same 40 families who control everything in the country as an oligarchy, be it from posts in industry, as politicians, or as the heads of unions.

A PRD win of the presidency would be comparable to what Chavez has done in Venezuela. It will challenge the power structure. He'll either sell out, create chaos, or be assassinated.

10 posted on 01/28/2006 7:32:07 AM PST by peyton randolph (As long is it does me no harm, I don't care if one worships Elmer Fudd.)
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To: Dane
Seems that things are tightening up a little bit. Hopefully this thread won't degenerate into a knee jerk Mexican bash.

We won't bash Mexico even if a Marxist allied to Castro, Chavez, Lula and Communist China comes to power and starts bashing America as the others do.

In fact that might make life a bit easier.

11 posted on 01/28/2006 7:36:10 AM PST by Mike Darancette (Condimaniac)
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To: Dane
"Mexico is a country with a ton of potential."

Unfortunately, it has been run throughout its history by a small clique of billionaire oligarchs for their private enrichment.

THat's why they prefer to drive their desperate underclass north into the USA, to let us pay for them.

12 posted on 01/28/2006 7:38:54 AM PST by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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To: Dane
Obrador? Didn't the Beatles have a song about him?

"...Obradee, Obrador, life goes on..."

This trend of Latin American countries electing extreme leftists does not bode well for the future. We may need to bring over some Israeli consultants on wall-building.

13 posted on 01/28/2006 7:39:34 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: Mike Darancette
As long as we build the fence, ahead of the coming refugee tsunami.

Let the refugee camps be built on their side of the border, so we don't have to absorb them.

Duncan Hunter 15' Fence

14 posted on 01/28/2006 7:40:39 AM PST by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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To: irish guard
This type of guy might find a way to tax the $hit out of his own citizens and pay for healthcare

This guy might pull the trigger on taxing money coming from the USA.

15 posted on 01/28/2006 7:41:47 AM PST by Mike Darancette (Condimaniac)
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To: Mike Darancette

Well, that would tend to stop the flow......if we know one thing, taxing things tends to stop the flow. Obviously, I am being cynical about his intentions, but if we suddenly suggested to our poor that they cross over into Mexico and demand driver's licenses, health benefits and quasi citizenship, they wouldn't like it either. Hhhhhmmmmm, now there's an idea! See how they like it!


16 posted on 01/28/2006 7:47:03 AM PST by irish guard
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To: Dane
Mexico is a country with a ton of potential.

Yes, that may be true, but it's also a country with 104 million people. That works out to three ten-thousandths of an ounce of potential per capita.

17 posted on 01/28/2006 7:47:12 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: irish guard
if we suddenly suggested to our poor that they cross over into Mexico and demand driver's licenses, health benefits and quasi citizenship,

They'd end up in police station showers "attached" to old field telephones until they promised to leave and never come back.

18 posted on 01/28/2006 7:52:57 AM PST by Stentor
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To: peyton randolph

You seem knowledgeable about Mexico. Can you recommend a book that describes how these 40 families came into power and how they maintain power? I know, corruption has a big part to do with it and the citizens are mostly disarmed so they cannot easily stage a revolution.


19 posted on 01/28/2006 8:01:37 AM PST by Wilhelm Tell (True or False? This is not a tag line.)
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To: Wilhelm Tell
You seem knowledgeable about Mexico. Can you recommend a book that describes how these 40 families came into power and how they maintain power?

I've lived in Mexico (to clarify for the Tancredo gang - I was born in the U.S., i.e. not an immigrant) before and traveled extensively in Mexico and Central American.

Unfortunately, I've not found a decent book on the issue in either English or Spanish. Sadly, the only authors to focus on the oligarchy in either language are socialists/communists. Some do it under the guise of liberation theology (a Marxist perversion of Catholicism).

If there is a decent book to be written on the subject, my bet is that it will come from a professor at the Universidad Autónoma de Guadalajara. It is the preeminent conservative university in Mexico. However, it has ties to PAN (and PRI to a lesser extent), which means that there is no incentive for the university to rock the boat by discussing the oligarchy.

Note that the current oligarchy flows from the pre-revolution cacique system. The closest analogy in the U.S. was the Italian mafia at its peak...and even then, the mafia never achieved the power of the Mexican oligarchy.

20 posted on 01/28/2006 8:42:12 AM PST by peyton randolph (As long is it does me no harm, I don't care if one worships Elmer Fudd.)
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