A lot of assertions there. The real secret name of Peak Oil is Peak Easy Oil. When the easy oil peaks, what is left is not-so-easy oil, and not so cheap. $70 a barrel will be seen as the good old days when we are ten years farther down the road. There's an assertion.
"A lot of assertions there. The real secret name of Peak Oil is Peak Easy Oil. When the easy oil peaks, what is left is not-so-easy oil, and not so cheap. $70 a barrel will be seen as the good old days when we are ten years farther down the road. There's an assertion."
At least you are making an economically computable assertion, which the peak oilers have a problem with. And you are basically right in one sense - it's not about the end of oil, but about the end of cheap-and-easy oil. We will never see the dirt cheap oil price that we got in 1998 again.
I disagree with the price prediction though ... $70 is near historical highs that only occured once in 120 years of oil history. It will revert more to the mean. I think oil will be $35-55 in the coming decade, average price of $45 or less.
Production capacity will go up to 100 million barrels, and the production costs for all that capcity is under $30/barrel, including the unconventional oil (tar sands), while this oil scare will teach us that we need our own resources and we need to conserve. So we will. Good lessons to learn, and about time we held the whip hand against Iran, Chavez and the other oil despots. I want to see more nuclear power, more drilling, higher MPG cars, lower oil imports, and Chavez and the mullahs going bankrupt.
That's my assertion. :-)