Posted on 01/27/2006 5:23:10 PM PST by LouAvul
DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) - Be afraid. Be very afraid.
That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.
The other, billionaire investor George Soros, wouldn't make any specific predictions about prices. But as a legendary commodities player, it's worth paying heed to the words of the man who once took on the Bank of England -- and won. "I'm very worried about the supply-demand balance, which is very tight," Soros says.
"U.S. power and influence has declined precipitously because of Iraq and the war on terror and that creates an incentive for anyone who wants to make trouble to go ahead and make it." As an example, Soros pointed to the regime in Iran, which is heading towards a confrontation with the West over its nuclear power program and doesn't show any signs of compromising. "Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided," he says.
Another emboldened troublemaker is Russian president Vladimir Putin, Soros said, citing Putin's recent decision to briefly shut the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. The only bit of optimism Soros could offer was that the next 12 months would be most dangerous in terms of any price shocks, because beginning in 2007 he predicts new oil supplies will come online.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
North to Alaska.
Reports indicate that ANWAR alone is over 20 year's worth of Saudi Arabia.
Screw China. Let Venezuela, Iran, etc supply them. There's more than enough for us if we are realistic about our own production capabilities without even considering shale oil.
Build them, ship them, use them. That's not something we can't do.
That's what I have been YELLING!!!!
Eat the Caribou. I remember the same hysteria when the Alaska pipeline went in and look at the caribou now. Using less than 1% of ANWAR will not affect a damn thing.
And besides OPEC is as much free market like Helen Thomas is a Hooters waitress.......
Thanks for ruining lunch pal!
Does it seem unreasonable to be concerned about such a large Chinese presence right in our back yard? And as you point out one that has it's very own enforcement branch. I find that troubling to say the least.
Saudi is possibly 400 billion barrels, ANWR is possibly 5 billion barrels. Saudi pumps 4 billion barrels a year.
it is somewhat troubling, though it to me is a separate issue from the alarmist material on the net about china 'owning' the panama canal.
people trafficking is apparently a BIG business for china.
I was never under the impression that China owned the canal. I thought that they run the two ports at either end, but you have dismissed that as a factual inaccuracy. I still find it disturbing that there is a build up (for lack of a better term)of Chinese nationals right under our noses. I don't think that it is unreasonable to assume that if we were to go to war with China, their loyalties would lie with their homeland.
I saw different figures. I guess the devil is in the details.
"So a variable tariff that sets a floor of $40/bbl would allow investors to predict a demand for oil substitutes at a price point that makes investment worthwhile"
I am an investor. I would not trust the stickiness of the tax. No way would my money count on goverment policy. No way. Plus Canada tried this. It did not work. Are you canadian? Just asking.
" I don't think that it is unreasonable to assume that if we were to go to war with China, their loyalties would lie with their homeland."
Great point.
Wrong! Oil wasn't discovered on the Arabian peninsula until the 1930's.
"The rest of the world would have cheaper energy by a ton."
By how much would the global price of oil go down (per barrel) if we had a $15/barrel tax?
Then explain to me how that lower price would be a bad thing for the world?
"It would probably be cheaper to import EVERYTHING we produce including food."
you dont seem to have a problem with $200 billion trade deficit in *oil*, so why is that a problem?!? Anyway, I've insisted that it be balanced with tax cuts on US production so that argument does not hold water.
Also, you fail to note that the main cost imposed will be on transportation. That's not something that has much exposure to foreign competition. Most of the tax will be borne at the consumer level, at the gas pump.
There are certainly ways to equalize the solution so that petrochecmical and refineries are not impacted much at all, eg via countervailing tariffs on downstream oil products like refined gas.
"Every trading partner would retaliate if we increased tariffs on energy (Canada) or whatever. "
Tell me what Iran, Venezuala and Nigeria would do to hurt our exports. Then tell me how "hurt" EU and China would be by our move to effectively lower global oil prices.
You've piled on so many contradictory criticisms they dont make any sense!
You seem to think I like taxes. I dont. I am an anti-taxer who wants smaller taxes, smaller govt, and lower tax rates on most everything. But I know our economic history. We used to generate most of our revenue on tariffs, and tariff rates today are lower than taxes on domestic production (if you add corporate income taxes to payroll, income and other taxes). In effect, we SUBSIDIZE IMPORTS.
Oil is being seriously subsidized on the import end. Drillers pay royalties on domestic drilling, but the money from the imports goes to the oil dictatorships. I am all for redistributing that OPEC "tax" back to USA.
"Our energy prices would be tied to currency fluctuations. I have not worked this out precisely but the dollar goes on a roller coaster. The fed would likely have to play with interest rates. The Mulahs would trade in Euro."
This is one of the silliest critiques, since it is our very oil *depedency* that gives us the rollercoaster, and since Mullahs *already* want to trade in Euros. Not that it matters much, but everything you mention would be mitigated by reduced oil dependency. And how can we reduce oil dependency? ... oil tariffs.
"Eliminate the capital gains tax. "
I have no problem using the $50 billion raised from an oil import fee to offset tax cuts on capital and production.
"The easy way to 'stick it to the mulahs" is to out produce them (MARGINALLY). Lower domestic energy costs. "
Doh! That is what I've been trying to tell *YOU*. Agreed! Let's produce domestic. But how? If you want to out produce the imports we have to put some margin between domestic production and imports.
"All the tariff does is bad. Why don't you pass your idea to some non-socialist economists. Walter Williams, Club for Growth, EI, Dr Sowell."
lol, I am *IN* the Club for Growth. The oil import tariff is the only tax I could learn to love, and what you are failing to account for is the many ways our political and military and economic depedency costs of imported oil are *NOT* calculated in your calculus of the pros and cons of this idea.
You're claiming it would be the end of the world here, when we have done the same (and worse) on: textiles, steel, cars, trucks, sugar, peanuts, and a host of other items.
I'm opposed to steel tariffs, car tariffs and a host of othe r taxes.
I'm *not* opposed to making a gallon of gas more expensive to buy so we can tell OPEC to go suck an egg.
"There would be no security in the energy markets because people in the US would not be not be happy with the slowing economy "
Raising taxes on imports while cutting taxes on domestic production will increase domestic incentives and be a plus on our economy. In general more of our taxation should be on consumption and on imports and less on production.
"Look I appreciate the concept of domestic energy. I love it. But you idea just doesn't work. OK."
Simple question. Is energy independence an impossibility, or something that is possible but 'not worth it'?
Thanks!
Actually those b@st@rds in Saudi nationalized a LOT of american corporate property there in the late 40's.
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