Alito has more than 50 commitmented to voting for his confirmation. I confess that I do not comprehend the theory that Bush would be embarassed if Alito were not confirmed before the SOTU speech.Not, certainly, unless there were Republican senators opposing cloture. Besides, when Bush gives his speech he has no need to bring the subject up at all.
The SOTU speech is Bush's opportunity to focus the attention of the nation on his message.
By providing the MSM with a competing headline line story (particularly a negative one) Bush's message would be partially obscured.
The embarrassment would be that Bush is unable to choreograph an important moment such as the confirmation of a supreme court justice or the SOTU address.