I'm not so sure that so much complexity is actually required - maybe yes, maybe no - but in any event it seems to make litle sense to stick with the analysis technique that has been substantially off target 100% of the time as present methods have been.
Even a finger to the wind might do better that that.
A finger to the wind would do just as well as static scoring so we might as well use it, as well as the "ceiling method"...where you gaze thoughtfully at the ceiling while stroking your face (or beard if you've got one) and proclaim the answer. LOL.
We've got to start improving our models....it's just not as easy as we'd like it to be....but we must take those first tentative steps...if we're ever going to learn how to run.....we're taking those tentative steps now.