Landrieu and Salazar have both gone on record as saying that while they oppose Alito and will vote no, they will not support a filibuster.
55 Pubs (if CHapsME or the Maine Moonbats dont do something stupid), 3 Dems (JOhnson, Nelson, Byrd), Landrieu, Salazar = 60 = no filibuster
Chafee can't afford to not vote for cloture. He might be able to get away with voting no on the floor, but Laffey will clean his clock in the primaries if he backs a filibuster.