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To: Gunslingr3
I think it is just a matter of time since they've decided to do it and have the raw materials. No one is interested in taking Iranian oil off the market. No one is interested in the price associated with Iran retaliating to an attack by restricting the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.

There are no good options, and striking militarily runs a risk of failure that only worsens our own position. The Big Stick works best when you don't have to swing it.

While I can completely agree with your overall premise (intellectually) I still don't see Iran with a nuclear weapon with this CIC, VP and SecDef -

Without a doubt any extended military situation would drastically hurt the oil flow throughout the World. Though I don't see Iran controlling the Straits of Hormuz (we'd keep that opened) - Though they very well would shut down their own oil production / outflow - (which is currently around 15% of world production if I'm not mistaken).

Again, I don't see Iran with a nuclear weapon...and we haven't really seen shock and awe ~

17 posted on 01/23/2006 7:05:44 PM PST by SevenMinusOne
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To: DevSix

Maybe the answer would be to occupy Iran's oil fields and deprive them of that source of income. They have NO other cash cow. They will have a heck of time trying to continue their nuclear development if they have no oil income and no oil to run their power plants.


20 posted on 01/23/2006 7:25:12 PM PST by jwpjr
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To: DevSix

It's true we haven't really seen shock and awe, but what have we seen that would give us any reason to believe that the WH has any intention of ever unleashing it?

I never would have thought the Iranians would get this far after 9/11 with this WH and this SecDef.

Iran has much greater assets than Saddam. Iraq was under sanctions for 15 yrs and basically had no mlitary left. No air force, no tank force other than obsolete Russian T-62s, no navy, no nothing. Iran has all that and more, plus a fully trained and equipped military of greater than 750K. Plus Hezbollah to wreak havoc. Plus the Syrians. Plus the Iraqi shiites. Plus their ability to kick up a storm in Iraq. Plus their friends in Beijing and Moscow.

I just don't see any realistic military option at this point. Certainly not one the WH has prepared the public for.

I'd like to be wrong here. I think the only option is a one off multi target raid, not any extended operation. Othert han that, I expect more of the same diplomacy with the Wh eventually claiming victory under some NK like deal to have the Russians enrich their fuel.

The irony is thick. Our greatest enemy of the past 50 yrs teaming up with our greatest enemy of the next 50 yrs. Why anyone would trust the Russians and the Iranians I have no idea.


30 posted on 01/23/2006 8:10:34 PM PST by jeltz25
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