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Iran Sanctions Could Drive Oil Past $100 a Barrel
AOL.News / ^ | 1/22/2006 | Brad Foss and George Jahn

Posted on 01/23/2006 6:19:46 AM PST by ex-Texan

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To: ex-Texan

41 posted on 01/23/2006 8:09:58 AM PST by Zacs Mom (Proud wife of a Marine! ... and purveyor of "rampant, unedited dialogue")
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To: brownsfan

Yer outa yer gourd about Socialism my FR friend. The article is damning corporations and corrupt politicians for selling out America with outsourcing, NAFTA and CAFTA. Pat Buchanan-isms are not free trade social-isms.


42 posted on 01/23/2006 8:11:56 AM PST by ex-Texan (Mathew 7:1 through 6)
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To: montag813

Screw drilling. Let's go nuclear.


43 posted on 01/23/2006 8:26:41 AM PST by CheyennePress
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To: brownsfan
Actually a dolt is one who would confuse a natural irrevokable law with a man made system. Gas prices are a dynamic system, to be sure, but it definately is a man made system. Therefore, it can be controlled.

"Gas prices" are not a system. Gas prices are what gas producers set. The prices that are arrived at are guided by the situation that buyers and sellers find themselves in.

The only system that can be said to exist is the framework that allows people to charge money for the things they have/make. Sure, that's a man-made system. We don't have to agree to it. We could go as far as eliminating private property if we wanted. But it doesn't work.

Price controls are weakening of property rights and they fail miserably. But they they still don't revoke the law of supply and demand. The law of supply and damand still works and even explains why it is price controls fail.

The law of supply and demand tells us, for example, that when prices are set artificially low shortages occur and that's exactly what happens. Nixon's price controls during the 70's are a great example. Remember the long lines at the pump? Do you really want to go back to that?

The trouble for us right now is that supplies for fuel are harder to come by and are being competed for by more and more people. Price controls won't change that situation one bit. Complaining about prices doesn't help either.

If anything complaining makes things worse! Why? Because it scares people away from the energy busines. They'll perceive the polical risks of the energy industry and put their money elsewhere.

44 posted on 01/23/2006 8:27:04 AM PST by mc6809e
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To: montag813

It turns out that our oil reserves are based on getting the top 30% of the oil out of a well, then it's considered "dry". The other 70%? it just takes more money to get it out, and guess what at $50.00 a barrel it becomes cost effective to get the rest of the oil out and use the shale oil. Not to mention the Germans made kerosine from coal in WW2 because they had a shortage, and why hadn't we made kerosine from oil? Because it cost too much....UNTIL NOW! Our oil reserves at higher prices double or triple!


45 posted on 01/23/2006 8:33:53 AM PST by AmericanDave (More COWBELL....................)
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To: mysterio

"Well, we better raise prices at the pump 50 cents now. I mean, just in case Iran might do something that might make a future shipment more expensive. And let's all raise our prices at the same time, too. But without colluding or anything."

LOL. It would be interesting to the see the individual portfolios of the traders giving their opinions to the press on the price of oil, whether they are going short or long...


46 posted on 01/23/2006 10:30:29 AM PST by quant5
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To: bill1952

"Iran is probably just playing the traders to drive up the price."

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe they want another 50 billion more in oil profits to subsidize keeping the population down from revolt. Just when it looks like we will attack at the final 'ultimatum' from the coalition of the willing, they back down and allow inspectors in. Meanwhile, the US population gets to be broke for a year while the politicians look great for keeping the peace.


47 posted on 01/23/2006 10:34:06 AM PST by quant5
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To: The_Victor

ANWR won't matter. The problem is much larger than that. Drill ANWR, there is some money to be made, but it won't make the slightest difference until another ten years, and even after that, when it goes into production, it will be only 17% of US production for the following ten years and then it's over.


48 posted on 01/23/2006 10:38:18 AM PST by RightWhale (pas de lieu, Rhone que nous)
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To: RightWhale
ANWR won't matter. The problem is much larger than that. Drill ANWR, there is some money to be made, but it won't make the slightest difference until another ten years, and even after that, when it goes into production, it will be only 17% of US production for the following ten years and then it's over.

It will mitigate the price fluctuations which are purely generated by emotional response to our lack of energy security. Which is why the price of oil jumps every time there is a hiccup in the Middle East.

49 posted on 01/23/2006 10:47:43 AM PST by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: The_Victor

Oil trending upward past $100 and past $200 [the point where the economy fails] is not a fluctuation. ANWR will have no effect until ten years after approval, and then will run for ten years, then done. We have had 30 years to build uranium plants, but the death-worshipping Greenies have stopped that completely. If we start uranium plant construction on a larger scale than the two or so that are underway we might make it, but the next ten years will be rough if the Iran situation goes the way it appears to be going.


50 posted on 01/23/2006 10:54:08 AM PST by RightWhale (pas de lieu, Rhone que nous)
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To: RightWhale
Oil trending upward past $100 and past $200 [the point where the economy fails] is not a fluctuation. ANWR will have no effect until ten years after approval, and then will run for ten years, then done. We have had 30 years to build uranium plants, but the death-worshipping Greenies have stopped that completely. If we start uranium plant construction on a larger scale than the two or so that are underway we might make it, but the next ten years will be rough if the Iran situation goes the way it appears to be going.

The current price of oil is speculation in the market, not the value of the product. Why else would a threat to Iran's production which is less then 6% of the worldwide total cause the price to jump? Mitigation of the price would be over the speculative nature of the oil market, not a real effect on the total amount of oil produced.

I'd be willing to bet you a dollar for donuts that on the day that the bill is passed to open ANWR for drilling, the price of oil will drop 10-15%.

51 posted on 01/23/2006 11:00:31 AM PST by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: quant5

I agree with that - in fact, what would be just peachy for Iran is for security tensions to keep ratcheting up - an occasional speech about wiping out Israel here, a threat to remove funds from European banks there - while they make money hand over fist from $100 a barrel oil.

Even if they cut oil production by half, and the price of oil doubled, then they would lose nothing, at least in the short run.


52 posted on 01/23/2006 11:02:45 AM PST by fragrant abuse
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To: The_Victor
Now can we drill in ANWAR?

You beat me to it.

53 posted on 01/23/2006 11:04:05 AM PST by mafree
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To: brownsfan
As one who has worked in the energy industry, I am fairly convinced that there is more more oligarch than many suspect.
54 posted on 01/23/2006 11:14:05 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: RayChuang88
Scientists have discovered growing certain types of algae in the same type of tanks used by large-scale commercial brewery companies like Anheuser-Busch and SABMiller could yield the type of biomass that can be processed into diesel fuel, heating oil, possibly kerosene for gas turbine engines, and even possibly gasoline! And the waste from this processing can be processed further into animal feed and ethanol fuel.

The EPA will regulate that to death, and make it impossible to be cost effect. But oil refineries have a different set of rules to play by. Trust me, there is to much money in big oil for the biomass to truly take hold.

55 posted on 01/23/2006 11:19:36 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: savedbygrace

Oh wow, since it was just posted, I thought that it was a new position speech.

Thanks for the heads up on that one.


56 posted on 01/23/2006 12:04:57 PM PST by bill1952 ("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
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To: The_Victor
Now can we drill in ANWAR?

Hell no! Nor can we build nuke plants. And for reasons why, just dial 1-800-DEMOCRATS.

57 posted on 01/23/2006 12:07:59 PM PST by Cobra64
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To: AmericanDave
It turns out that our oil reserves are based on getting the top 30% of the oil out of a well, then it's considered "dry". The other 70%? it just takes more money to get it out, and guess what at $50.00 a barrel it becomes cost effective to get the rest of the oil out and use the shale oil. Not to mention the Germans made kerosine from coal in WW2 because they had a shortage, and why hadn't we made kerosine from oil? Because it cost too much....UNTIL NOW! Our oil reserves at higher prices double or triple!

Trouble is that it takes energy to get energy. There's a point where you expend more fuel to get more fuel. Pumps and other technologies for getting the deeper oil require fuel.

58 posted on 01/23/2006 1:08:26 PM PST by mc6809e
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To: mysterio
Well, we better raise prices at the pump 50 cents now. I mean, just in case Iran might do something that might make a future shipment more expensive. And let's all raise our prices at the same time, too. But without colluding or anything.

Nicely put.

59 posted on 01/23/2006 1:10:58 PM PST by AxelPaulsenJr (Pray Daily For Our Troops and President Bush and the SAPPS)
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To: AxelPaulsenJr

Maybe we should just bomb their oil fields and then they couldn't GET $100. a barrel...


60 posted on 01/23/2006 1:13:28 PM PST by princess leah
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