Posted on 01/22/2006 9:36:06 PM PST by nickcarraway
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be crazy, but he's not stupid. Bashar Assad may be stupid, but he's not crazy. Between them lie Israel and Iraq. Assad aims to use Israel as the means of avoiding the consequence of ordering murder, Ahmadinejad as proof of his nation's ascendance to the status of terrorist superpower. Iraq, if Ahmadinejad succeeds, will be Iran's first colony in the new Islamic caliphate.
An Iranian dissident group this past week predicted an Iranian nuclear test before March 20. It is entirely possible that Iran may be ready to test a nuclear weapon, but to do so at this moment would seem contrary to Iranian interests because such action would almost certainly result in an Israeli attack. But would it? Perhaps.
Saturday, Israel's defense minister, Shaul Mofaz, said that Israel "will not accept Iran's nuclear armament" and hinted that Israeli forces were planning a strike to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities. A day later, Iranian foreign minister Hamid Reza Asefi said, "Israel knows just how much of a fatal mistake it would be [to attack Iran]....This is just a childish game by Israel." If Iran were to explode a nuclear warhead, the Israelis would be driven to attack. Israel has the ability to attack Iran, but it cannot -- due to distance and Iran's hardened and widely dispersed facilities -- attack with the conclusiveness it did in 1981 in Iraq. Iran's nuclear capability would survive, and the resulting war would be fought -- almost entirely by aircraft and missile -- across Iraq, which sits between them. And so does America.
As John Batchelor reported in AmSpecBlog two days ago, Bashar Assad of Syria accused Israel of assassinating Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat, whose cause of death has never been fully explained. It mattered little to Assad that his remarks came only days before Palestinian January 25 elections. His accusation was aimed directly at stirring Palestinian violence rather than the election. Assad is under increasing pressure from the UN investigation of the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, which Assad obviously ordered. If the Palestinians can be incited to begin a huge new terror campaign, attention will be drawn to Israel's response and -- Assad assumes -- the investigation will fall off the UN's radar. The Palestinians have always been a tool of Israelis' enemies, a reliable and expendable proxy force. The Syrian will -- if he can -- use the Palestinians as cannon fodder. Syrian incitement to terror will not rest on Assad's words. They will be accompanied by money, weapons and direct political pressure on Palestinian terror groups.
The two statements -- Assad's and Asefi's -- surrounding a visit by Ahmadinejad to Damascus are anything but coincidental. They help explain the Iranian endgame for the Middle East.
JUST AS SYRIA WANTS TO USE the Palestinians as a diversion, so Iran wants to use Syria to begin a tidal wave of diplomatic pressure on Israel. An Iranian nuclear test would not end the European diplomatic campaign aimed at blocking Iran's nuclear weapons program, but only change its direction. The Europeans and Japan will not join a trade embargo against Iran. For them to do so would demolish their fragile welfare state economies. Iran is preparing for a long diplomatic siege, calling for a 1 million barrel per day OPEC production cut and moving its financial assets out of Europe. These measures alone (even if the production cut isn't agreed on at the late January OPEC meeting) are enough to muzzle Europe. In the coming diplomatic battles, Israel will be isolated even more than it is now. If Israel has to crack down on Palestinian terrorist and then attacks Iran, UN sanctions against Israel would be debated for months, removing any threat of action on UN sanctions against Iran.
An Iranian nuclear test would leave Israel no choice but to attack with or without American permission or help, and regardless of the fact that it could not accomplish the desired result. President Bush has said, repeatedly, that we will not permit Iran to have nuclear weapons. But his position has always been calculated on the basis that there is time to prevent that occurrence peacefully. What will he do if Iran tests a nuclear weapon?
If Iran's nuclear ambition is a fete accompli, the equation is changed radically. If Iran has nuclear arms, it will -- immediately -- take the position of a regional superpower. None of its neighbors (really, none of the nations within range of an Iranian weapon except Israel) will be able to resist Iran's domination. And, with the Shahab-3 and -4 missiles the Iranians have, the threat from Iran would include nations as far away as Germany. The Islamic caliphate will have begun its restoration.
To attack Iran's nuclear capability, the president would have to risk what has been accomplished in Iraq. If an Israeli attack were made, the Israeli and Iranian air forces -- and missile exchanges -- would cross Iraqi skies. Because the antagonists' ground forces are unable to enter each others' territory, Iranian ground forces could enter southern Iraq at the invitation of radical Shia such as Moqtada al-Sadr. If an American attack on Iran were decisive -- destroying not only the nuclear capability but also decapitating the mullahs' regime -- the Iraqi Shia would not have the motive to use military force against the Sunni minority and Iran wouldn't be able to force them to do so. The Iraqi Shia are Arabs, not Persians, and aren't willing to submit themselves to Persian rule. But if an attack didn't clearly destroy the Iranians' nuclear capability, the Iraqi Shia could be forced to attack the Sunni and demand American withdrawal. A very large war will have begun that could again array all of Israel's neighbors (save only Iraq) against it. Israel barely survived its last major war in 1973. It may not survive this one.
THE WAR WITH IRAN WILL have to be fought and we will, of course, defend Israel as best we can. But much bloodshed can be avoided, and Iran's nuclear objective put out of reach if we seize the advantage we gave up to Saddam in the UN. Surprise is a strategic advantage we must retain.
The alternative to a large war, which no one speaks about, is a surprise attack against Iran mounted before Israel acts, and before the predicted Iranian nuclear test happens. Such an attack would employ several unconventional weapons at once and could -- if managed properly -- be over before Iran knows it has begun. The world must know that we have done it. But after, not before.
It may be that Iran's Chinese allies are doing more than helping develop its missiles. It may be that Iran's Russian trading partner is doing more than providing defenses against air attack. But neither is likely to be providing Iran with the means of effectively defending against our other capabilities.
It could, and should, be made one dark night. B-2 stealth bombers, each carrying twenty ground-penetrating guided munitions, can destroy much of Iran's nuclear facilities and government centers. Some might carry reported electro-magnetic pulse weapons that can destroy all the electronic circuits that comprise Iranian missiles, key military communications and computer facilities. And it may be that we have the ability to attack Iran's military and financial computer networks with computer viruses and "Trojan horses" that will make it impossible for Iran to function militarily and economically. Our strategy must be implemented before Ahmadinejad can test his nukes. Whether that test can happen next month or next year is immaterial. The time for us to act is now.
The Western lion will not be conquered. It will die of a heart attack as it pleads for peace with the mouse.
Major wars are not cheap. This is a major war and may well require a formal Declaration eventually and the total orientation of the economy toward prosecuting the War.
Exactly. We will have to go to "total war" mobilization, because it won't stop with Iran. The only question is if we have the capacity and will to do it anymore.
bttt
If we initiate a premptory strike against Iran it has to be successful. Failure will give Congress to the democrats, dooming the WOT and Isreal.
No one today is worrying about Sadam's nuclear program. I wonder why?
Wise advice. But will we heed it?
The Dems, the Left, our Muslim 5th column and the antiwar crowd (but, I am repeating myself) have done enormous damage in blunting our ability to take decisive action in this war - and the Iranian problem is an integral part of our current War Against Islamic Fascism, aka WOT. Whether the current Administration has the will remaining to do what is necessary and mount a surprise attack on Iran (in concert with Israel or not) is very much an open question. Certainly the next Administration won't if it is Hillary's.
The Bush Administration is badly hampered by past restraints and self-imposed restrictions which have established strong precedents for seeking accommodations and permissions from bodies like the UN and establishing "coalitions", much less getting a formal declaration of war against Iran from congress - which, of course, would negate a "surprise" attack. A hypothetical argument our current 9/11 Declaration would suffice would not survive the political firestorm of domestic and international outrage over a surprise attack even though it might survive a legal one.
I fear this Administration finds itself in a box of it's own construction and that of the previous Administrations. It is likely they may figure the political costs of a unilateral surprise, overwhelming attack against Iran will be just too high a price to pay and instead go the old, established tried-and-true route. We have been effectively gelded by the Left unless another 9/11 type attack happens first.
But, that's my opinion. Your mileage may vary...
We have reserves, and we have access to Iraqi oil in a national crisis. There is Russian oil, Mexican oil and S. American oil. There are our own reserves, set aside for this very purpose. Most of all, there are the American people, who would rather drive less than be bullied by an Islamic terrorist state like Iran.
"That, and the US will not use nukes unless attacked by nukes. To use them first would place us in a very bad way with the rest of the world."
This is what I said in the first place, we have become a fearful nation of wimps who wring their hands in worry about what "others may think". It's the effects of thirty years of PC brainwashing. But may I remind you of Harry Truman and the American people of 1945 who thought that victory over our mortal enemies was more imporant than being subject to their aggression and worrying about "what others may think".
A nuclear armed terrorist state like Iran in our times is an even worse threat than was the Japan that attacked us in 1941, IMO. If these insane islamic barbarians drop so much as one nuke in a major U.S. city the death and destruction will be greater than all American wars of the past combined. The economy will be horrible for years to come, and worrying about the cost of oil will be at the bottom of our worries.
"If we attack Iran, the resulting oil price surge will hurt the west much more than any attack Iran could mount."
So the 7th century mullah glares and the wimpy American blinks? You are easily bullied. Find your courage, put on your boots and stand up to these arseholes in turbans who so easily make you quake with fear with threats of making oil more expensive. What's the big deal, just do less driving and keep your thermostat lower and Mohammed's great strategy turns against himself. Bear in mind that if Iran stops selling oil, or if their profits drop sharply, they are in far, far worse condition than the West would be. It's their ONLY asset.
We have the capacity. Will is another sort of question and the answer is not so sure. The left will fight us viciously.
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