Florida Republicans rally around Katherine Harris

Bradenton Herald ^ | Jan. 21, 2006 | Brendan Farrington (AP political reporter)

[JulieRNR21]

Debating with you will not change your mind and i'm too tired to even bother.

Katherine is our candidate whether you like it or not. Since Jeb, Crist & Gallagher, etc. couldn't change the situation why would you think that 'little old me' could?

I wish you well and hope you put as much enegy into the TN elections as you have the FL races.

So who do you recommend to oppose your TN Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen?

[Mase]

You'll notice, too, that I'd never claim that the 20-25% margin that Nelson leads by would turn out that way in the general..

Polling this far out is meaningless anyway. Does anyone really think Santorum is 15% behind in his race? No one is really paying attention this far out and those numbers will tighten as we get closer to the election.

..that's why I say she is no more than actually 10% behind Nelson. And she'll probably stay that way until election day.

Based on what, the debates? You're calling a race, by 10%, that most voters aren't even paying attention to yet? Please.

do you understand that ideology isn't the problem in this race ?

The problem here isn't ideology. The problem is negativism. Harris is a Conservative Republican just like Bush. Unfortunately for her, the Republicans have not come out enthusiastically for her and that has hurt her among her own party as well as independents and crossover Dem's. With Bush and others state Republicans rallying for her, she stands a good chance of closing the gap. The base is not the problem and will vote in large numbers, especially if the marriage referendum make the 2006 ballot.

No one has produced ANY substantive evidence or proof she CAN win.

Other than this being a red state and the fact that there are no statewide elected Dem's left here other than Nelson? LOL. Yeah, Gov. Bush was going down to defeat here in 2002 because of him helping his brother steal the 2000 election. It was McAwful's top priority, remember? If the Dem's didn't crawl across broken glass in 2002 to avenge the stealing of the 2000 election, what makes anyone think they'll appear in droves in 2006 to beat Harris? You can offer nothing that says Harris can't win in 2006 other than some pollsters asking questions to people who really are not paying attention.

I always thought that what defines Conservatives is dealing with the REALITY of situations and not believing, as liberals do, that being behind 25% in the polls means you will WIN.

If we followed your reality we'd never win much of anything. You give far too much credit to pollsters this early in an election year. Even Reagan trailed Carter by huge numbers in 1980 and was still behind in some polls prior to the October 28, debate.

Reagan was an optimist and he defined modern conservatism as being optimistic by nature. Dem's believe all sorts of crazy things so I can't speak to whether or not they think they will win if they are 25 points behind in the polls. However, Harris is in a red state and will now have the backing she needs to win. This is not NY or California. A Conservative like Harris can still win here.

You should keep your focus on TN. You're going to need a little optimism to hold on to your own seat.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"It may normally be too early for the polls to count, but she probably has better name recognition than Nelson. She needs to get the "Cruella DeVille" smashed and smashed good. I have no idea how to do that."

Unfortunately, that's the problem. She's had 5 years to try to combat the perceptions, and she's failed to make any headway. She's not going to turn that around in the next 10 months.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Debating with you will not change your mind and i'm too tired to even bother."

Like I said, I take no pleasure in pointing out the reasons why she won't be able to pull out a victory. Shooting someone who can analyze data, crunch the numbers and facts and draw up a reasonable conclusion won't change anything I've stated. All I hope to do is what I did with regards to the NY Senate race, when the liberal establishment tried to foist an unelectable and toxic GOP candidate on the voters (Jeanine Pirro), to point out the facts of her record and limited appeal, and in doing so played a part in getting her out of the race and elevating a more suitable, experienced, and appealing candidate who actually is a Conservative, into the lead for the primary nomination. I'm not telling Harris to get out of politics, only that she should stay in the House. Some people spend their entire lives just trying to reach THAT job, one for which she has had only seeming half-hearted devotion to.

"Katherine is our candidate whether you like it or not. Since Jeb, Crist & Gallagher, etc. couldn't change the situation why would you think that 'little old me' could?"

Because as a Florida voter, you have more pull. You can contact the party, the Governor, these other candidates, tell them as loudly as you can that while you love and support Miss Harris, you don't think she is the strongest candidate we can field. This race is very winnable -- with the right person.

"I wish you well and hope you put as much energy into the TN elections as you have the FL races. So who do you recommend to oppose your TN Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen?"

No one of any stature wants to jump in, and Bredesen is a VERY flawed incumbent with state Democrat party scandals reaching epic proportions. Unfortunately, in TN it's like your Governor's race in reverse with regards to the Senate race... all the energy is there. We've got the candidate that SHOULD be nominated, Ed Bryant, running against Van Hilleary, whom Bredesen beat through fraudulent means in '02 - a man who shouldn't even be IN the Senate race, and then we have the wealthy RINO establishment candidate, ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, who is hoping the Conservative split will cause him to get the nomination (we have no fear that we'll keep the Senate seat, Harold Jr's candidacy is TOXIC - almost like Harris). Some of us had hoped Hilleary would drop out (he needs to, anyway) and run in a rematch against Bredesen, and there was even a quiet effort to try to persuade Fred Thompson to jump in -- the "Jeb Bush" of the state, whom would beat Bredesen in all the polls, despite Pharoah Phil's $$ advantage). We still have until April to get a "name" in there, but no one as of yet. It is very frustrating.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

My grandfather knew Ms. Harris' grandfather through the great sport of football.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Polling this far out is meaningless anyway."

And in a lot of instances, you'd be right. The problem is that in most races such as this, the challenger usually is not as well known as the incumbent. If anything, it's the reverse problem. Harris is better known than Nelson ! There is very little room for growth to change the equation where her candidacy is concerned. Half of Florida (or at least the ones who vote, doesn't matter about the ones who don't) holds a very negative opinion about Harris herself, and it has nothing to do with the party or the ideology -- it's just her. She's had 5 years to try to change that perspective, and she hasn't been able to do it.

"Does anyone really think Santorum is 15% behind in his race?"

Right now ? Yes, I do. If the election were held now, Bob Casey, Jr. would probably wipe the floor with Santorum. Fortunately, since Casey Jr. is mistaken for his dad (and is nothing like him), Santorum still has some time to change perceptions. It will be difficult, but not impossible. We will also have a very strong candidate for Governor in Lynn Swann, and depending upon his margin of victory, he may provide coattails for Santorum.

"No one is really paying attention this far out and those numbers will tighten as we get closer to the election."

Yes, there are a lot of people paying attention, those with the pursestrings and the movers and shakers within the party pay very close attention before the primaries. This is recruitment time. I never stated that I didn't believe the numbers between Nelson and Harris wouldn't tighten. I very much doubt Nelson would sweep the state with over 60% of the vote, but it is much more likely he'd get that high a % than Harris winning at all.

Based on what, the debates? You're calling a race, by 10%, that most voters aren't even paying attention to yet? Please.

I've got some people telling me they don't think she'll get to 40%. I'm being optimistic saying it will be 45%, but I think the numbers will end up being akin to the '86 Hawkins-Graham contest (and by that year, Hawkins was a flawed candidate for various reasons, albeit somewhat different than Harris). 40-45% is about what any Republican would get holding down the base vote without getting any Democrat or Independent voters (the latter groups of which think Harris kills puppies for sport).

"The problem here isn't ideology. The problem is negativism. Harris is a Conservative Republican just like Bush. Unfortunately for her, the Republicans have not come out enthusiastically for her and that has hurt her among her own party as well as independents and crossover Dem's. With Bush and others state Republicans rallying for her, she stands a good chance of closing the gap. The base is not the problem and will vote in large numbers, especially if the marriage referendum make the 2006 ballot."

The negativism stems from her own failures to turn the perceptions around. She can't even turn that around in her own Congressional district where she failed to gain any additional support from her run in '02 to '04. Until a few hours ago, I actually had never looked up what her '04 margin of victory was and believed it (erroneously) to be at or above 60%, when I saw it was that same 55% she earned 2 years earlier, I was shocked. Even when she ran in '02 for what was supposed to be an "uncontested" primary race, 1/3rd of the GOP voters defected to a protest candidate. I'm, again, probably being optimistic when I say she'll hold the very base GOP voters -- given what I've cited, she might even fail to do that.

"Other than this being a red state and the fact that there are no statewide elected Dem's left here other than Nelson? LOL."

That wasn't Nelson's first statewide victory, y'know. Just because a state is Republican doesn't mean a Democrat can't win, and vice-versa for Republicans in Democrat states. Sometimes it boils down to the candidate themselves. Bill Nelson's record is abysmal, but he's been quite remarkable in that he has managed to remain so low-key that he barely registers a negative complaint as to his own persona (except for his own record, and that only amongst stalwart Republicans). I guarantee if you put their positions up against each other, the majority of Floridians would support Harris's position -- but in the likeability department, they'd lean to Nelson. I don't like it, you don't like it, but that is the perception and the reality.

"Yeah, Gov. Bush was going down to defeat here in 2002 because of him helping his brother steal the 2000 election. It was McAwful's top priority, remember? If the Dem's didn't crawl across broken glass in 2002 to avenge the stealing of the 2000 election, what makes anyone think they'll appear in droves in 2006 to beat Harris?"

The only people driving up the anti-Jeb nonsense was the liberal media and hardcore rabid Democrats. The perception amongst the OVERALL voting population was never as anti-Jeb as it was made out to be. I never believed he was in the kind of danger that would spell defeat. If anything, the 'Rats were in disarray when Reno failed to get the nomination. Now that would've been a barnburner (but Jeb still would've won). I don't think the comparison between Jeb-McBride to Harris-Nelson is a fair one. We don't even have enough ANGER and motivation within our own party on par with what the Democrats had in '02 in taking out the incumbent.

"You can offer nothing that says Harris can't win in 2006 other than some pollsters asking questions to people who really are not paying attention."

I can point to the reality of her post-2000 electoral performances (anything before then doesn't matter, because she was a low-key player) and her inability to make this a competitive contest. You want competitive ? Take a look at the situations for Senate races in Maryland (Blackwell), NJ (Kean), and Minnesota (Mark Kennedy) for examples. Our GOP candidates are already polling either ahead of the Democrats or just slightly behind. If this were any other state, Harris would've been written off by now by her embarrassingly poor showing in such a HEAVILY GOP state ! Even if she gets the nomination, if the numbers remain as static as they have been, and there is no evidence they will change, despite claims to the contrary, the national party WILL write her off and put money into those 3 aforementioned winnable contests and into shoring up some of our more vulnerable incumbents.

"If we followed your reality we'd never win much of anything. You give far too much credit to pollsters this early in an election year. Even Reagan trailed Carter by huge numbers in 1980 and was still behind in some polls prior to the October 28, debate."

"Reagan was an optimist and he defined modern conservatism as being optimistic by nature. Dem's believe all sorts of crazy things so I can't speak to whether or not they think they will win if they are 25 points behind in the polls. However, Harris is in a red state and will now have the backing she needs to win. This is not NY or California. A Conservative like Harris can still win here."

You guys keep citing examples that are so far afield from the contest at hand. To compare Reagan-Carter to Harris-Nelson is patently ludicrous. Reagan didn't have astronomically high negatives... but Carter certainly did. Nelson doesn't have the kind of negatives at this point that would offset Harris's. As I've said in this thread and others umpteen times, until you can drive his negs through the roof, make him Osama's even more EVIL brother, which is all you can do now, Harris cannot pull off a victory. Nominate ANY other respectable candidate (save the RINO Mark Foley), and we'll have more of a horserace. Nominate the King of Florida, Jeb, and we got it in the bag. If then-Gov. Bob Graham could be persuaded to take down Paula Hawkins in '86, why on earth can't we inspire our OWN best of the bunch to get on the bandwagon and keep the 'Rats at bay and drive the last statewide one (except for the 5 frauds on the State Supreme Court) into retirement ? C'mon, Jeb ! Do it !

"You should keep your focus on TN. You're going to need a little optimism to hold on to your own seat."

We've got to keep the focus EVERYWHERE, not just in Tennessee. My only worry about TN, besides the dreadful situation with the Governor's race, is that we might send a RINO to the Senate. I have absolutely ZERO worry that we will hold the seat with an "R." The Ford name is toxic, and as long as Junior's Auntie Ophelia keeps up with her quest (by ANY means necessary) to hold a seat that was stolen for her in our state legislature, she'll continue to drive Junior's negatives into the stratosphere. That's why I can certainly afford to be a bit more worried about other states that matter.

[Costigan]

>>If the Democrats do regain the Senate, it'll be in large part because Katherine Harris, Conrad Burns, and Bob Taft care only about their personal ambitions.

Of all the Republicans who considered running against Bill Nelson, Katherine Harris has both the highest level of name recognition and the lowest level of support.

I'll bet that Bill Nelson is already drafting his victory speech.<<

Clinton,[leave off the 'fatigued'] - your cynicism stinks !
If Tommy Franks was running, or there was any other serious contender in the race, your answer might be yes .

As for you and Fieldmarshaldj's belief that other possible Fl GOP contenders are afraid of Katherine Harris's supporters - - stinks of weakness !
If they are so afraid of Fans of Harris, how are they going to survive a battle with Nelson's supporters, the type who fight as dirty as Carville ?

[Costigan]

Yes, that maybe so !

Hopefully it is !

Voting against Alito at this stage can only hurt Bill Nelson, Senator D-Florida

[Costigan]

>>You used a Nelson site to determine he was a moderate?

Now look at the ACU on conservative issues for Nelson:

Bill Nelson D 4 20 14 4

It was 4 out of 100 in 2004 and 20 out of 100 for 2003 with a score of 14 right now. They don't have 2005 up yet but only getting a 4 out of 100 in 2004 -- that's almost as liberal as they come IMHO and not even close to being a centrist.<<

Thank you for stating this information .
I will check into this !

[Costigan]

>> He is no moderate and his record shows that. http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Bill_Nelson.htm
I was at that rally today. And what I saw was a winner. She will win this election. She got the support today of The Governor, Lt. Governor and several Florida State Senators and Representatives. She was also endorsed by The Republican Womens Federation of Florida along with the National Black Republicans Association today.<<

This is very good, but at this late stage, does not guarantee victory .
Seeing a winner is not the same thing as having a winner !

I would warn you and all of Katherine's fans and friends against overconfidence .

By the way, if you look at the voting record of Representative Harris, it is far from solidly conservative .
[not a Tree-Hugger , but leaning in that direction . She is for Goverment funding of the Art- that is a definite no-no for a Conservative]

Nelson's voting record is pro-Vet, pro-Boy Scout, pro-Irag War- so far . (He is also pro-Homosexual Marriage, which could hurt him)

But maybe I logged into the site of that other Nelson .

[Costigan]

This is from Fieldmarhaldj>>
In a heavily GOP district by 55% after outspending her opponent by 10-to-1. When she ran for a 2nd term, she won by... 55% again. This is a very unimpressive result, demonstrating an acute inability to expand her appeal beyond the GOP base to Independents (incredible, given that some even believe her to be more towards a RINO country-clubber, which you'd think would net her more Indy and Dem votes). Her Conservative GOP predecessor, Dan Miller, would routinely win the district by 2-to-1 margins, which is very telling.<<

JulieRNR21, how can you rebut these facts ?
How can you state they are in error ?

Because if they are factual, then with Harris falling far behind Nelson in fund raising and consistently behind Nelson in poll numbers - - - -
- - Harris has very little or no chance- - - - - - - - - - of defeating Nelson in November,
unless some scandal derails his popularity !

[Costigan]

>>It's amazing that anyone could think that the empty suit called Bill Nelson is a moderate under any circumstances. They call him Bill lockstep Nelson because he does what the DNC tells him to do. He only supported Estrada because we have a large Hispanic population in Florida. His rush to the middle doesn't fool anyone who lives here.<<

Maybe so, but perceptions are everything in campaigning !

I do not live in Florida so I cannot speak for their percpetions of Nelson .
But I do know he does not appear to have any negatives on the Public Radar Screen .

Not many positives either !

Simply bashing Nelson as an 'empty suit' and as a 'partisan-robot', is not enough to dethrone an incumbent !

[Costigan]

>>Frank Brogan ? He was enormously popular and would make the contest instantly competitive. My point is, and what a lot of the diehard KH supporters refuse to accept, is that she isn't even a competitive candidate at this point ! <<

It is hard to argure with your facts !
I wish Julie or someone else would make a rebuttle that was as dtailed .

But to say she is not even competitive is like saying the patient is dead simply because you cannot hear a heartbeat !

With this defeatsist attidude were around in the 1940's, we would never have stormed Normandy Beaches !

You Fieldmarshalldj are too quick to give up the ship !
It is only January - -
If Katherine Harris does not make a great rebound in her fundraising by late Febuary, then she should call it off !

By the way MarshallDJ, if you are so sure she won't win,
then get another GOP candidate who can .
Convince him or her to run - put your money where you mouth is - -


- - - - just don't simply complain about Harris - - - -


Who the hell is this Frank Brogan anyways ?

[Costigan]

Yes, that is what I mean exactly !

[Costigan]

>>As for Florida polls, didn't you see these polls showing other conservative Republicans polling stronger than Harris is? People like Congressman Dave Weldon and state House Speaker Allen Bense, who are virtually unknown outside their districts, run closer to Nelson than Harris, who is better-known than the incumbent. These results show in Republican polling firms, not just Democrat ones. <<

Then why are not these same Republican hopefuls you've mentioned on this posting and elsewhere on this thread, not actively sought the Florida GOP Nomination ????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Because they are scared of Katherine's FANattics :-$

[fieldmarshaldj]

"It is hard to argure with your facts ! I wish Julie or someone else would make a rebuttle that was as detailed."

Some have tried, but they pull out comparison races that aren't of similar dynamics. Personally, I've been going over races in my head and can't think of any with similar dynamics. The Ollie North-Chuck Robb '94 Senate race comes to mind, but both Robb and North had high negatives (and a 3rd party RINO handed Robb a 2nd term). The problem with Nelson is that he doesn't have high negatives and Harris does.

"But to say she is not even competitive is like saying the patient is dead simply because you cannot hear a heartbeat !"

A candidate as high-profile as Harris and as well-known trailing by such a ghastly margin at this point would generally be written off in almost any other circumstance. They may claim she is not, but if she fails to close the gap (and I just don't see it happening), she is going to be written off and resources devoted to contests where there are less than 10% of a polling margin between the candidates.

"With this defeatsist attidude were around in the 1940's, we would never have stormed Normandy Beaches !"

Storming the beaches at Normandy is easy... just get there with tons of troops... electing Harris over her horrendous negative numbers... that's like the Nazis having the "N-bomb", game over. :-(

"You Fieldmarshalldj are too quick to give up the ship ! It is only January - - If Katherine Harris does not make a great rebound in her fundraising by late Febuary, then she should call it off !"

She's had ample opportunity, she's been warming up in the bullpen for 5 years - this is the job she wanted. Sadly, for all the work she did in 2000, she may be the person that had to take one for the team.

"By the way MarshallDJ, if you are so sure she won't win, then get another GOP candidate who can. Convince him or her to run - put your money where you mouth is - - - - - - just don't simply complain about Harris - - - -"

Hey, I WISH I had that kind of pull, but if you can get me 15 minutes with Jeb, I'd try to make a helluva pitch !

"Who the hell is this Frank Brogan anyways ?"

You don't know Frank Brogan ? He was Jeb's very popular first-term (and early second-term) Lieutenant-Governor. He resigned early in 2003 to take a job as President of Florida-Atlantic University. He LOOKS like a Senator !

Frank Brogan

[linda_22003]

"More and more, I wish that vile megalopolis would get nuked off this planet, and I don't care by whom !"

What an appalling thing to say. Apparently you enjoyed September 11 more than the rest of us did. >:P

[Costigan]

>>You don't know Frank Brogan ? He was Jeb's very popular first-term (and early second-term) Lieutenant-Governor. He resigned early in 2003 to take a job as President of Florida-Atlantic University. He LOOKS like a Senator ! <<

I see what you mean . He does .

But I would, and so many GOPers, would like to see
a Conservative Woman representing the Republicans in the Senate - - even if Harris is not a dyed-in-the-wool Conservative . .

I read an article on Tammy Bruce's page where she lauded Dubya's choice for Alito for SCOTUS, but she wished he had chosen Janice Rogers Brown or some other Conservative Female Candidate . ( Why oh why did Bush ever chose Miers beats the hell out of me !)

[Mase]

She's had 5 years to try to change that perspective, and she hasn't been able to do it.

She's a Congresswoman representing one district. Most Florida voters, outside her district, only know what the media have told them to this point. She won statewide as Secretary of State. Her negatives are based on the fact that most Florida voters don't really know who she is or what she represents.

There is very little room for growth to change the equation where her candidacy is concerned

Nonsense. Most legitimate polls have yet to show Nelson with much more than a 50% approval rating. You seem unusually focused on Harris' negatives and not the incumbent. Nelson's negatives are why the DNC is so concerned about this seat.

Harris polls better than any of her challengers for the Republican primary. The polls have kept her challengers away. Why don't you recognize that she has strong support among the base in a red state with a large number of Dem's and independents who lean right.

Yes, there are a lot of people paying attention, those with the pursestrings and the movers and shakers within the party pay very close attention before the primaries

What, 20% of the likely voting population? That's why Harris easily beats all likely challengers for the nomination. Given Florida's population that amounts to a large number of voters but, it still represents only a small number of the total. To draw a losing conclusion in January for a November election is, well, negative.

but it is much more likely he'd get that high a % than Harris winning at all.

It's a long way till November and you don't really have a crystal ball that works, do you? Remember, red state with, most likely, a marriage amendment on the ballot. What do you think that will do to the base and the middle? Marriage defined as between a man and a woman polls in the high 70's here. Ya think that might generate some coattails?

I've got some people telling me they don't think she'll get to 40%.

Not surprising that defeatists would stick together. Are these folks in TN too?

I'm being optimistic saying it will be 45%

Your crystal ball brings out the optimist in you? LOL

any Democrat or Independent voters (the latter groups of which think Harris kills puppies for sport).

Independent voters think she kills puppies? You must mean the Dem's (former) think so. If that's the case, what's the issue that's going to drive them to the polls? Reliving the 2000 election? It didn't work against Jeb, what makes you think it will against Harris. If the media dumps on her too much the whole strategy might backfire.

She can't even turn that around in her own Congressional district where she failed to gain any additional support from her run in '02 to '04.,/i>

She ran against the same candidate (Schneider) both times so it's not all that surprising. The 13th district is about 52% republican and 35% Democrat. Sarasota county has become much more liberal recently with the migration of retirees from the NE, Calif, etc. You'd need to know more about my district to understand these dynamics. Harris does have some local baggage from the Riscorp fraud for example. Does anyone think that she wouldn't hold her seat for as long as she'd like to represent the district though?

I guarantee if you put their positions up against each other, the majority of Floridians would support Harris's position

Be careful, you just said something optimistic.

I don't like it, you don't like it, but that is the perception and the reality.

Good thing voter perceptions are subject to change, isn't it? Otherwise, we'd never have any upsets and more people would just do what the MSM tells them.

The only people driving up the anti-Jeb nonsense was the liberal media and hardcore rabid Democrats.

And exactly how is this any different from Harris?

Take a look at the situations for Senate races in Maryland (Blackwell)

I spent a lot of years in Maryland. If you knew this state you'd realize what an uphill battle Steele (not Blackwell) has on his hands. Harris has a much better chance of winning Florida than a Republican has for winning a Senate seat in Md.

Harris would've been written off by now by her embarrassingly poor showing in such a HEAVILY GOP state ! Even if she gets the nomination

Yet none of any likely challengers polls ahead of her. I guess her base is pretty solid, otherwise someone would challenge her right? Maybe it's not as bas as the pollsters and MSM want us to believe. Maybe they'd like to see a nobody like Bense run.

To compare Reagan-Carter to Harris-Nelson is patently ludicrous.

Reagan was not well known by the voters in early 1980 and didn't close the deal until the debate on October 28. Harris can do the same. Reagan was an optimist. He'd give us 1 reason why she can win instead of 10 reason why she can't. If you choose to be a defeatist, I'm certainly not going to stop you. The modern Conservative movement is defined by optimism -- something that is in short supply in your posts.

C'mon, Jeb ! Do it !

Now, who's not being realistic?

The Ford name is toxic

He doesn't seem to be polling all that badly. I wonder why so many pundits and pollsters list TN as a battleground. I see some pollsters who have Ford leading Coker and just behind Bryant and Hilleary. Maybe you're paying more attention to our polls than your own.

[Mase]

Simply bashing Nelson as an 'empty suit' and as a 'partisan-robot', is not enough to dethrone an incumbent !

He's also a flaming liberal living a lie in a red state. If perceptions are indeed reality, and this is just January, there is a long time to change perceptions and polls.

We all know that Nelson doesn't poll well for an incumbent. That makes him vulnerable in a red state. Harris polls better than her potential challengers with the base, which is why no one is taking her on. It's not as desperate as the pessimists would have us believe. Thankfully, we won't be picking up our tent and running for the beaches just because a few polls show us behind at this early date.