Not McCain. Just like in 2000, he might start off strong in the primaries in "open primary" states where one doesn't have to be a registered Pubbie to vote in the GOP primary. Once he gets to states where only registered Republicans can vote (in primary) then he'll go down.
This kind of talk scares me. Not because I want McCain to be president, but because I SO want Hillary NOT to be president. I hope we don't cut off our noses to spite our faces and end up with President Hillary Rodham Clinton. I shudder to think about it.
I don't even think he will make it that far, though it won't be any fault of his own.
The circumstances have changed.
In 2000, he was the moderate, running against all the conservatives.
Forbes, Bush, etc.
In 2008, he is going to be one of many big name moderates, Rudy is going to run, Romney is going to run, Pataki (despite being booed in Iowa and New Hampshire during some fundraising tours) is going to run, etc.
With all these moderates competiting against each other, they'll split the vote.
Leaving anyone who is conservative, with a good shot to rally the conservative vote, state by state.....and in a GOP primary, getting the conservative vote gets you a lock.